There are four new wide releases this week, but only of them is likely to top $10M for the traditional three-day weekend. The Jason Statham vehicle Death Race (Universal) seems to be getting some traction in industry tracking, although a huge breakout opening is unlikely. Instead, the Paul W.S. Anderson-directed action pic will likely open with $13M-$16M. I suspect this movie, also starring Oscar nominee Joan Allen (The Contender) and Golden Gobe winner Ian McShane (Deadwood), will be enough to out-pace holdover Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount), which will probably dip 40 percent-45 percent from its opening weekend.
Adapted from 1975’s Death Race 2000, which starred a pre-Rocky Sylvester Stallone, the new Death Race features Statham, who is increasingly becoming a solid bankable action star. If the new movie reaches my $16M predicted opening, it would be his all-time fourth-best opening behind The Italian Job ($19.4M), The One ($19.1M) and Transporter 2 ($16.5M).
The Ben Stiller-directed satire Tropic Thunder, which was clearly hurt by Michael Phelps and the first week of the Olympic Games on NBC, has a real chance to repeat as the weekend box office champ with something in the $13M-$16M range, but I am calling for $15M, a tick behind Death Race. I still believe that Thunder is going to perform very well in coming weeks thanks to excellent reviews and positive word-of-mouth.
The Warner Bros mega-hit The Dark Knight should continue to hold extraordinarily well with a probable No. 3 finish. I am calling for a possible $9.75M for the Friday-thru-Sunday period, which would likely push the total domestic cume for the Caped Crusader to something over $488M.
The other wide releases are all likely to finish the three-day with disappointing results. The House Bunny (Sony), featuring the always-funny Anna Faris from Scary Movies appears to be the strongest of the titles in the marketplace. Lots of appeal with Females Under 25 could result in $6M-$9M, and my call is for $8.2M and a 4th place finish.
Fox’s The Rocker, starring Rainn Wilson (The Office), is trying to get a jump on the competition with a Wednesday opening, but this film is just not moving the needle. My sources tell me that industry tracking shows no buzz, low awareness, a poor Definite Interest score and a dismal First Choice. The result will be a possible three-day of $5M-$8M (my prediction is $6.2M) and a potential five-day of only $8M-$11M (my number is $9.3M). If those numbers hold, The Rocker will be fifth for the weekend.
Meanwhile, MGM/Weinstein’s The Longshots, featuring Ice Cube (Are We There Yet?) will open very quietly with $4M-$7M and a finish anywhere from sixth to 10th place. My call is for just over $5M.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST 22
1. Death Race (Universal) - $16M
2. Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $15M
3. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $9.75M
4. The House Bunny (Sony) - $8.5M
5. The Rocker (Fox) - $6.2M
6. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros) - $6M
7. The Longshots (MGM/Weinstein) - $5.25M
8. Pineapple Express (Sony) - $5.1M
9. Mirrors (Fox) - $5M
10. The Mummy 3 (Universal) - $3.7M
The Dreamworks/Paramount comedy Tropic Thunder received a nice 17 percent bump on from Friday's $8.2M and should finish the weekend with about $26M according to studio estimates. That means that the Ben Stiller-directed movie satire has actually scored a better three-day than last weekend's R-rated Pineapple Express (Sony), which generated $23.24M Friday-thru-Sunday.
There was clearly some concern after Thunder opened with $6.5M Wednesday and dipped to $4.5M on Friday, far behind Pineapple's $12M Wednesday and $6M Thursday, but the picture recovered nicely over the traditional three-day. It seems clear now that the Seth Rogen/James Franco comedy was helped by getting a jump on the Beijing Olympics by two days, and the Under 25's that rushed to see the movie are not traditional Olympics fans anyway.
The more sophisticated Tropic Thunder, with excellent reviews, was definitely competing more directly with NBC's Olympics coverage. Thunder reached $37M for five-days despite competing with Michael Phelps' history-making 8 gold medal performance, Nastia Luken and Shawn Johnson finishing 1-2 in the women's gymnastics all around and other marquee events like the 100 meter dash won by Ussain Bolt of Jamaica in world record time on Saturday. With only a week of the Olympics to go and very light competition on the release schedule over the next month, Tropic Thunder should easily top $100M while Pineapple Express seems more likely to stall out around $70M-$75M.
Mega-hit The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) was No. 2 for the weekend adding an estimated $16.79M according to Warner Bros. That was stronger than fellow Warner Bros release Star Wars: The Clone Wars, which dropped over 18 percent on Saturday, and will wrap the weekend with just $15.5M. It appears that the LucasFilm animated film will struggle to reach $40M domestic.
R-rated horror film Mirrors (Fox) played better than expected after a $4.25M Friday. The movie was essentially flat day-over-day and should have $11.12M banked by Monday morning. That makes it the fifth-best horror opening of 2008, following The Strangers, Prom Night, The Eye and One Missed Call.
At No. 5 is the aforementioned Pineapple Express, which tailed off a dramatic 57 percent to $10M. Two other new wide releases struggled. Fly Me To the Moon, the animated 3D family film from Summit, was unable to grab as many 3D locations as they had hoped and scored a $2M opening weekend. Meanwhile Overture's Henry Poole Is Here starring Luke Wilson managed just $800,000 at 527 locations.
REVISED THREE-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $26M, $7,833 PTA, $37.03M cume
2. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $16.79M, $4,676 PTA, $471.49M cume
3. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros) - $15.5M, $4,491 PTA, $15.5M cume
4. Mirrors (Fox) - $11.12M, $4,176 PTA, $11.12M cume
5. Pineapple Express (Sony) - $10M, $3,255 PTA, $62.93M cume
6. The Mummy 3 (Universal) - $8.6M, $2,599 PTA, $86.64M cume
7. Mamma Mia (Universal) - $6.49M, $2,345 PTA, $116.41M cume
8. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) - $5.93M, $2,184 PTA, $32.14M cume
9. Step Brothers (Sony) - $5M, $1,888 PTA, $90.88M cume
10. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Weinstein) - $3.71M, $5,361 PTA, $3.71M cume
*Fly Me To the Moon 3D (Summit) - $2M, $4,424, $2M cume
*Henry Poole is Here (Overture) - $800,000, $1,518 PTA, $800,000 cume
Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount) is a hit, but it will come in with a five-day of less than Sony’s Pineapple Express, and it seems that the Beijing Olympics may be hurting the new R-rated comedy’s performance. Last week’s stoner comedy Pineapple Express, starring Seth Rogen and James Franco, got two solid days of business in before the start of the Beijing Olympics and registered just over $18M on Wednesday and Thursday, then scored $23.24M on its opening weekend. Tropic Thunder, on the other hand, registered only $11M in its first two days in theatres, followed by an estimated $8.25M on Friday. That should translate to a $26.5M three-day and an opening five days of $37.53M or so.
The Dreamworks comedy is skewing much older than Pineapple Express, and this satirical take on the movie business is decidedly more sophisticated, and the 25 Plus demo is far more likely to be following the Olympics. The Ben Stiller-directed movie-within-a-movie has received excellent reviews (83 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and 72 percent Positive on MetaCritic), but that tends to drive those same grown-up movie fans. Robert Downey Jr., Ben Stiller, Jack Black and Tom Cruise are competing with the world’s biggest star at the moment, Michael Phelps, who tied the 36-year old Mark Spitz record of seven gold medals at a single Olympiad Friday night at the Water Cube in Beijing and will try to surpass that mark Saturday night in primetime on NBC.
With excellent word-of-mouth, the end of the Olympics next weekend and no major competition for the next month, I am still anticipating that Tropic Thunder can reach $100M, whereas I am projecting a still excellent $70M-$75M for Pineapple Express. The Judd Apatow-produced Pineapple Express, however, was budgeted at a very modest $27M compared to Thunder’s $100M+ budget.
Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros), an animated LucasFilm spin-off, grabbed an estimated $6.65M on Friday, but this film will be very front-loaded as Star Wars junkies poured into theatres on opening day. The film could dip as much as 15 percent-20 percent on Saturday, leading to a three-day of $19.5M or so. That will probably mean a total domestic box office take in the $45M-$50M range.
Another solid hold for The Dark Knight (Warner Bros), which continues to soar to heights once thought impossible. The Christopher Nolan-directed comic book adaptation added an estimated $4.95M on Friday for an anticipated three-day of $17.17M, pushing the mega-hit to almost $472M. The Dark Knight seems destined for $515M-$520M domestic.
Mirrors (Fox) actually out-performed Pineapple Express on Friday with $3.7M in sales, but it will finish its opening weekend in fifth place with an estimated $10.12M. That makes it only the 7th-best opening for an R-rated horror movie in 2008.
TOP SEVEN 2008 HORROR FILM OPENINGS
1. The Strangers -$21M
2. Prom Night - $20.8M
3. The Eye - $12.42M
4. One Missed Call - $12.5M
5. Shutter - $10.4M
6. Mirrors - $10.12M
7. The Ruins - $8M
Meanwhile, The buzz is apparently wearing off for moviegoers as Pineapple Express slowed to $3.48M on Friday. The marijuana-fueled comedy is headed for an estimated $10.44M and a new cume just north of $63M, but that represents a 55 percent drop from its opening weekend.
EARLY THREE-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $26.5M, $7,984 PTA, $37.53M
2. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros) - $19.5M, $5,649 PTA, $19.5M cume
3. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $17.17M, $4,785 PTA, $471.87M cume
4. Pineapple Express (Sony) - $10.12M, $3,294 PTA, $63.05M cume
5. Mirrors (Fox) - $9.8M, $3,681 PTA, $9.8M cume
6. The Mummy 3 (Universal) - $7.99M, $2,377 PTA, $86M cume
7. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) - $6.69M, $2,467 PTA, $32.91M cume
8. Step Brothers (Sony) - $5.24M, $1,982 PTA, $91.13M cume
9. Mamma Mia (Universal) - $5.13M, $1,853 PTA, $115.05M cume
10. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Weinstein) - $4.02M, $5,816 PTA, $4.02M cume
The certain $500M+ domestic box office take of The Dark Knight has moved Warner Bros past Paramount/Dreamworks in the 2008 market share race, and, with Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince set for November, the studio seemed a lock to sail past Sony’s 2006 domestic box office record of $1.71 billion. The 2008 release schedule got a major shake-up on Thursday, however, as Warner Bros shifted Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince to next July '09.
Warner Bros still seems likely to be Hollywood’s No. 1 studio for this year, edging Paramount/Dreamworks, and they seem destined to post at least the second-best all-time annual domestic haul with something over $1.6 billion. And, as the studio continues to juggle its release schedule, it is not inconceivable that WB could still top the Sony record, even without Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince .
Star Wars: The Clone Wars, opening this week, seems unlikely to break out in a big way for Warner Bros, so the studio will ride a few key titles the rest of the year (although nobody is writing the release schedule in ink). There is the film adaptation of the Nicholas Sparks novel Nights in Rodanthe (9/26), starring Richard Gere and Diane Lane, Ridley Scott’s Body of Lies (10/10), based on the excellent David Ignatius CIA thriller, Pride & Glory (10/24), starring Edward Norton and Colin Farrell, and Four Christmases (11/26), inherited from New Line, featuring Reese Witherspoon, Vince Vaughn and an all-star cast. Warner Bros will also get a few big weeks from Jim Carrey’s sure-fire Yes Man in this calendar year, and Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino could arrive in December as well.
Paramount, which enjoyed back-to-back-to-back $200M grossing films this year, an industry first, has fallen about $175M behind Warner Bros. Tropic Thunder, from the Dreamworks pipeline seems likely to top $100M, then the Melrose gang wraps the year with Shia LaBeouf in Eagle Eye (9/26), a possible $200M gross from Madagascar 2 (11/7) and a couple of weeks of David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (12/25), starring Brad Pitt. There is also an unset wild card title in The Soloist from Atonement director Joe Wright and starring Robert Downey Jr., Catherine Keener and Jamie Foxx. My hunch is that Paramount/Dreamworks manages to push past $1.5 billion giving it one of the top 5 annual studio performances in history.
The smart money is on Sony to finish #3 in the market share race, riding its R-rated late summer hits Step Brothers and Pineapple Express, a possible October sleeper like Nick & Norah’s Infinite Playlist and the sure-fire James Bond picture Quantum of Solace to something in the $1.2 billion range. The other 3 of the big 6, Fox, Disney and Universal, should finish the year at right around $1 billion in domestic sales.
Paramount/Dreamworks says that they have been expecting a soft opening for Tropic Thunder, but I am a bit surprised. Last night, I reported that the film generated $7.5M in Wednesday ticket sales, and, as it turns out, the real number is $6.5M. Given that Pineapple Express (Sony) topped $12M last Wednesday, I was expecting at least $9M on day 1, even with direct competition from the Beijing Olympics.
Thunder has received 83% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and the movie has a lot of buzz according to industry tracking, so why softer than Pineapple Express? The obvious answer is that the Under 25 "stoner crowd" showed up last Wednesday in big numbers, resulting in a front-loaded 5-day. In fact, opening day was easily the best box office performance for Pineapple Express. That will not be the case with Tropic Thunder.
The Ben Stiller-directed movie-within-a-movie comedy will likely follow a more traditional weekend model with a big Friday, a slight increase on Saturday and a summer Sunday dip of 20%-25%. Ultimately, the size of Tropic Thunder's 5-day will be determined by how big its Friday number is. A $7M Friday would likely translate to $22.5M for the traditional 3-day and a 5-day of $33.5M or so. If the movie surges to $10M on Friday, the R-rated comedy would top $30M for 3 days and $40M for 5 days. My hunch is that Friday will come in right around $8M. If that's the way the start of the traditional weekend goes, Tropic Thunder's 3-day will be an estimated $25M and the film will have banked $36.5M by Monday morning.
It appears that the Ben Stiller-directed Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount) has opened about 40 percent off the day one number for Sony's Pineapple Express last Wednesday. Early estimates show that the wild, movie-within-a-movie R-rated comedy has scored a solid, but less than meteoric midweek opening of $7.5M or so.
My industry sources are telling me that this picture will play differently than Pineapple Express. Frankly, the marijuana party crowd-fueled Express' big Wednesday of $12M, then the film dropped 50 percent on Thursday, recovered for just under $8M on Friday, was down slightly on Saturday to $7.6M and scored a near-identical Sunday. Tropic Thunder will likely follow a more traditional model.
With Stiller, Robert Downey Jr., Jack Black and Tom Cruise in tow and an excellent Rotten Tomatoes score of 80 percent+, Tropic Thunder will play older than Express. It seems that Thunder will be down a less dramatic percentage on Thursday to about $5M before bouncing up to a possible $8.5M Friday, a potential 20 percent bump on Saturday to $10.2M and a dip of 20 percent on Sunday to $8.2M. There is obviously some guesswork here, but this seems like a solid theory.
If the film plays out this way, the 5-day will be right on $40M (I predicted $45M on Tuesday) and the traditional three-day will be about $27M (up from my early week prediction of $25M). That will still be enough for Tropic Thunder to win the three-day with Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros), trailing at $18M-$21M and fellow WB title The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) slipping to No. 3 at $15M-$18M.
The buzz for Tropic Thunder is solid, and there is not a lot of competition in the next couple of weeks, so the film will have legs. With a $40M five-day, the raucous comedy should have no trouble topping $100M domestic.
A well-placed studio source told me this week that there’s probably only one "big-time" movie remaining on the release schedule for August, and, no surprise, it is Ben Stiller’s Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount). With a highly anticipated performance from Iron Man star Robert Downey Jr. and a buzzed-about, scene-stealing turn by Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder has been everybody’s sure-fire late summer hit for months, and industry tracking points to an excellent five-day opening, starting Wednesday, and an almost certain weekend win.
The Beijing Olympics are a huge ratings hit for NBC, and films in release this weekend will need to contend with Michael Phelps’ pursuit of eight gold medals at the Water Cube in China. The Baltimore-raised aquatic superstar will swim in his final event Sunday night. The Summer Games generally, and Phelps specifically, have the potential to dampen the weekend numbers at America’s movie theatres, but Tropic Thunder, like last week’s Pineapple Express (Sony) and Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros), is getting a jump on the field with a midweek opening.
I am anticipating $11M-$13M on Wednesday for the Dreamworks/Paramount property, and the film will likely bank $43M-$46M by Monday morning, slightly better than the five-day performance for Pineapple Express last week. The traditional three-day will fall in the $24M-$27M range, which will probably be enough to win the weekend.
The George Lucas-produced animated Star Wars film The Clone Wars (Warner Bros) is a likely No. 2 for the weekend, but it may struggle. A competing studio exec tells me that, according to industry tracking, the percentage of moviegoers who say that they have no interest in the film out-number those that say they have Definite Interest, which is not a good sign. Still, hardcore Star Wars fans could power the film to $8M-$11M Friday and a front-loaded three-day of $20M-$23M.
Mega-hit The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) will likely be knocked from the No. 1 spot this weekend, dipping to $15M-$18M. Last Friday, I projected $515-$520M domestic for the Christopher Nolan-directed comic book adaptation, and Warner Bros distribution president Dan Fellman offered the same numbers in a Monday Hollywood Reporter story.
Fellman also told THR that Titanic was once in a lifetime, and I don’t think we’ll ever have another gross like that in the history of the industry.’ Those are the same sentiments I have been expressing for weeks. There has been a fundamental change in the way movies are distributed, and, with 4,000 location and 10,000 screen openings, it is completely improbably for any future Hollywood movie to demonstrate the week-after-week resilience that pushed Titanic to $600M domestic.
The other wide release this weekend is Mirrors (Fox), from The Hills Have Eyes director Alexandre Aja. May’s The Strangers (Rogue) demonstrated that there is still room in the market for an R-rated horror film, but this one does not have nearly the same market traction according to industry tracking. 24 star Kiefer Sutherland’s first feature since 2006’s The Sentinel seems headed for $10M-$13M.
There is a hodgepodge of limited releases also debuting Friday, each on fewer than 1,000 screens. I am anticipating $3M-$5M for Woody Allen’s Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Weinstein), $2M-$4M for Summit’s 3D animated family movie Fly Me To the Moon and $1M-$2M for Henry Poole Is Here (Overture), starring Luke Wilson.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF AUG. 15
1. Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $25M (five-day total of $45M)
2. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros) - $21.5M
3. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $16.6M
4. Pineapple Express (Sony) - $12.5M
5. Mirrors (Fox) - $11.8M
6. The Mummy 3 (Universal) - $8.3M
7. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) - $6.5M
8. Mamma Mia (Universal) - $5.4M
9. Step Brothers (Sony) - $5.2M
10. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Weinstein) - $4.6M
*Fly Me To the Moon (Summit) - $3.3M
*Henry Poole Is Here (Overture) - $1.25M
Pineapple Express (Sony), which opened to a spectacular $12.15M on Wednesday, suffered its expected Thursday buzz-kill, down about 50 percent, according to preliminary numbers. I am projecting an estimated $6.25M for day two of the Seth Rogen/James Franco marijuana-fueled comedy for a pre-weekend of $18.4M.
The mega-hit The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) appears to have received a slight up-tick from Wednesday, when Males Under 25 rushed out to see the Judd Apatow-produced Sony comedy. The Christopher Nolan-directed comic book adaptation scored an estimated $5.35M on Thursday, up about 5 percent from Wednesday. This sets up a heated battle for the traditional three-day weekend box office crown.
My usual sources and I have arrived at the conclusion that Pineapple Express could top $11M on Friday, leading to a five-day of $47M and a three-day of $28.7M or so, compared to the Caped Crusader's $8.1M fourth Friday, which would likely translate to a three-day of just over $27M. If Pineapple Express gets that high, it would mean a three-day weekend upset of The Dark Knight.
Meanwhile, Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) appears to have followed up its $5.7M opening day with a Thursday of $2.9M or so. That puts the female-skewing sequel on track for a $17.1M three-day and a very healthy five-day of $25M, ahead of The Mummy 3 (Universal), which is beginning to struggle.
The much buzzed-about Judd Apatow-produced comedy Pineapple Express (Sony) got high on Wednesday. Very high. With co-writer and star Seth Rogen and a breakout comic performance for James Franco, Express rode to a stunning $12.15M on opening day. That will likely translate to a a five-day of $42M-$45M, well above industry expectations. Amazingly, the movie was budgeted at only $27M, so this will be a wildly profitable film for Sony.
The battle for No. 1 in the traditional three-day box office battle now becomes very interesting. Pineapple Express is rated-R and is aimed at Males Under 25. Tomorrow night's Beijing Olympics opening ceremony will unlikey put a dent in the weed-filled fun, and it appears that the new Sony release can reach $27M-$30M for the Friday-thourgh-Sunday period. Meanwhile, The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) softened a bit Wednesday, finishing with an estimated $5.1M. I am now pegging the $400M+ blockbuster for a $24M-$27M weekend and a No. 2 finish.
Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) was No. 2 on Wednesday with an estimated $5.7M. That is also better that most studio execs were expecting. Again, with the Olympics providing no real competition for this "girl power" picture skewing to Females Under 25, the weekend should be very healthy. I am projecting a five-day of $22M-$25M and a 3-day of $17M-$20M, almost certainly finishing No. 3 ahead of the fast-fading The Mummy 3 (Universal).
Whereas The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) was an underdog to win last weekend versus The Mummy 3 (Universal), I am installing the Christopher Nolan-directed comic book adaptation as the betting favorite to win both the traditional 3-day and the Wednesday-thru-Friday 5-day frames this weekend--although it could be close.
Two new movies are opening Wednesday (August 6) in the hopes of getting a jump on the Friday night Opening Ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics. NBC’s prime-time coverage over the next 3 weeks will smartly feature many of the high profile swimming events, including those featuring Michael Phelps, and gymnastics, with Shawn Johnson’s pursuit of the Women’s All-Around, but the Olympics have begun to increasingly skew 25 Plus. Given that, both Sony and Warner Bros have picked a good spot for their respective releases.
Pineapple Express, Sony’s R-rated stoner comedy, is aimed at Males Under 25, and Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2, a youth-oriented chick flick from Warner Bros, is reaching for Females Under 25. I do not believe, however, that the pageantry of the Opening Ceremonies, including a celebration of the history of Chinese culture, will do much to dampen the box office performance of these 2 new releases.
The Judd Apatow-produced Pineapple Express looks very solid in industry tracking, especially with the big money young male demo, and this marijuana-fueled comedy has an outside chance to upset The Dark Knight. Both movies are likely to finish in the same range with a traditional 3-day of $24M-$29M and a Wednesday-thru-Friday 5-day of $35M-$40M. Ultimately, I suspect that the Caped Crusader will defeat the Seth Rogen/James Franco toker jokefest, but Express will be a strong #2.
Pants 2 is the probable 3rd-place finisher for the weekend. The 2005 original opened on a Wednesday and managed a 3-day of $9.83M and a Wednesday-thru-Sunday of $13.57M. The modestly-budgeted, good-hearted “girl power” movie went on to $39M domestic. This sequel will enjoy a big step up at the box office.
With America Ferrera, now a star thanks to Ugly Betty, Alexis Bledel, Blake Lively and Amber Tamblyn all returning, the new Traveling Pants seems destined to break $20M for the 5-day with something in the $19M-$22M range. The 3-day weekend should be $13M-$16M.
The Mummy 3 (Universal) will suffer a severe drop with a $13M-$16M Friday-thru-Sunday and something near $20M for 5-days. Tomb of the Dragon Emperor fell apart on Monday with just $4.24M, and that suggests a 65%+ drop-off from the film’s $44.7M 3-day opening.
FINAL 3-DAY PREDICTIONS FOR AUGUST 8-10
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $28M
2. Pineapple Express (Sony) - $25M
3. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) - $15.5M
4. The Mummy 3 (Universal) - $14.75M
5. Step Brothers (Sony) - $8.5M
6. Mamma Mia (Universal) - $7.5M
7. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros) - $4.5M
8. Swing Vote (Disney) - $3.7M
9. WALL-E (Disney) - $2.9M
10. Hancock (Sony) - $2.7M
FINAL 5-DAY PREDICTIONS FOR AUGUST 6-10
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $37.6M
2. Pineapple Express (Sony) - $35M
3. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros) - $21.5M
4. The Mummy 3 (Universal) - $21M
5. Step Brothers (Sony) - $11.6M
6. Mamma Mia (Universal) - $11.2M
7. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros) - $6.65M
8. Swing Vote (Disney) - $5.2M
9. WALL-E (Disney) - $4.3M
10. Hancock (Sony) - $3.8M