Depending on which cable news network you watch, what pundit you put up with or, hell, even what your Facebook feed says today, the candidate that you hear is leading in the polls — President Barack Obama or GOP candidate Mitt Romney — probably varies pretty wildly. But if you’re too anxious to wait to find out if your candidate will win the election, don’t worry because there are some stats out there that are relying on even more trustworthy sources: science, math, and… cats.
In the days leading up to the election, New York Times poll expert and overseer of their FiveThirtyEight blog, statistician Nate Silver (pictured) has become one of the most cited and scrutinized predictors of the 2012 race. As of early Tuesday morning, the site declared that President Obama will earn 313 of the needed electoral votes and has a 90.9 % chance of winning. (Silver also noted on Twitter in response to the huge reaction, “IMPORTANT: That we have Obama as a ~90% favorite does NOT mean we’re predicting a landslide. We expect a close election.”)
Silver stopped by The Colbert Report on Monday night to explain and defend his scientific, mathematical process of determining the winner. Silver, who said he is anti-pundit said the FiveThirtyEight method is simple: “Go and look at the polls and take an average and add up the states and see who has 270 electoral votes…These polls are pretty simple facts.” Watch:
If Silver’s numbers-based analysis still makes you skeptical or that’s simply not the outcome you wanted to hear, don’t worry, there are other predictor factors to consider. For instance, consider these election year “rules”:
The Nov. 6 Rule: Whenever an election has fallen on November 6, the presidency has gone to the Republican candidate. Point: Romney
The World Series Rule: If an American League team wins, the Republican candidate wins the election. Sorry Mitt, and the Detroit Tigers: the San Francisco Giants are this year’s champions. Point: Obama
The Redskins Rule: If the Washington Redskins football team wins their home game that takes place before the election, the incumbent president wins. Since the Carolina Panthers just beat the Redskins, it seems baseball is more in Obama’s favor. Point: Romney
The Mr. Nuts Rule: Whichever kitty litter box with the candidate’s name this adorable tuxedo cat from the Bay Area named Mr. Nuts craps in, said candidate will not win. San Fran continues to haunt Mitt, as Mr. Nuts didn’t check his name off in a box, rather, he defecated in it. Point: Obama
The Jimmy Fallon’s Dog Rule: Don’t trust cats to make your political decisions? Neither does Jimmy Fallon. The Late Night host had his adorable pup Gary on his show Monday night and had him pick the candidate simply based on which candidate bowl he ate out of. It looked like all was forgiven between the dog world and Romney. As Fallon put it, “Gary, you must not have heard the story about Romney tying his dog to the roof.” Point: Romney. Watch:
Between Silver’s prediction and the World Series and Mr. Nuts rules, Obama has three points. Romney’s favor in the Nov. 6, Redskins, and Jimmy Fallon’s Dog rules brings his tally to three as well, leaving our Presidential predictors at a tie. Turns out, this is a tight race no matter where you turn.
Whose Presidential prediction do you trust the most? The least? Remember, when it comes to Mr. Nuts and Gary election by d’awwwwwww doesn’t count.
[Photo credit: Comedy Central]