Though likely to drop only as far as to No. 2, Harry Potter could still take a hard tumble this weekend. Director Chris Columbus' adaptation of J.K. Rowling's literary smash-the first of seven films planned-dropped a troubling 59 percent in its third weekend, from $57.4 million to $23.6 million. Big earners tend to drop hard during the post-Thanksgiving week, yet Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas still managed to log $27 million this time last year after a Thanksgiving take of $52.1 million. The Grinch also enjoyed a $18.6 million fourth weekend, but that seems a reach for young Mr. Potter. Harry Potter should fall to between $13 million and $15 million. Still, Harry Potter has amassed $223.6 million in its 20th day vs. The Grinch's $175.7 million, and should surpassed its total $260 million without the need to resort to magic.
Harry Potter does lag behind Star Wars: Episode One - The Phantom Menace, which made $259.6 million in its first 20 days. At this pace, Harry Potter looks certain to surpass Shrek's $267.6 million to become the year's top-grossing film, with between $300 million and $325 million its likely total.
America's renewed patriotism paid dividends for Behind Enemy Lines, with the Bosnian-set war drama reaping $22.1 million through Wednesday. That justifies 20th Century Fox's decision to push up Behind Enemy Lines's release date by six weeks in light of terrific post-Sept. 11 previews. (The same ploy failed for Black Knight, which Fox moved from mid-January to Nov. 21 with disastrous results.)
Owen Wilson, though, may find it easier to defeat an entire army of Serbian rebels than face 11 suave and sophisticated thieves. Like the similarly themed Spy Game, Behind Enemy Lines should experienced a second weekend drop of almost 50 percent.
Pitt may enjoy a huge opening this weekend with Ocean's Eleven, but it will come at the expense of his other new release, Spy Game. Director Tony Scott's globe-trotting thriller, with Robert Redford trying to save fellow spy Pitt from execution at the hands of the Chinese, dropped from $21.6 million to $11 million in its second weekend with the arrival of the more action-oriented Behind Enemy Lines. Pitt fans must now decide between seeing him bloodied and bruised or perfectly manicured with his matinee-idol looks in plain sight for once. Any guess as to which Pitt his fans want to spend the night with?
Still, Spy Game has $48.8 million through Wednesday. That's slightly behind Scott's previous foray into high-tech espionage, Enemy of the State, which earned $52.3 million in its 13th day of release on its way to $111.5 million.