Best Director
Robert Altman, Gosford Park
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
Amazingly, none of these guys has ever won an Oscar. Altman and Scott have been nominated several times, but walked away empty handed each time.
This could be newcomer Ron Howard's year, though, with A Beautiful Mind emerging as the strong frontrunner. And even though Altman was shut out of the Director's Guild Awards, the 77-year-old Altman is certainly due for an Oscar. He probably shouldn't win for Gosford Park since it isn't his best work, but if Altman does, it'll once again prove how the Academy likes to award people for their body of work.
Although Black Hawk Down didn't ring any bells at the Golden Globes, Scott will probably make Oscar's list for the second year in a row. He's already got the DGA on his side. This leaves Jackson for Lord of the Rings and Luhrmann for Moulin Rouge, a New Zealander and an Australian, respectively, who both directed tremendous films of great undertakings. They each deserve their own spot.
The winds could shift, however, in favor of David Lynch for his twisted Mulholland Drive, or even in favor of first-time director Todd Field for his drama In the Bedroom. Interestingly, the DGA thought to give Christopher Nolan a nod for Memento, but Nolan is more likely to receive a nomination in the Best Screenplay category.
Best Picture
A Beautiful Mind
Black Hawk Down
In the Bedroom
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Shrek
The brilliant A Beautiful Mind is on everyone's A-list and could quite possibly win it all. It'll also be refreshing to see the Academy recognize a good old fantasy epic like Lord of the Rings. Remember Star Wars? Good times...
The tense war drama Black Hawk Down should make the cut now that all the Academy voters have had a chance to see it. It's a film that appeals to the country's patriotism right now. And In the Bedroom will probably edge out Mulholland Drive in the smaller, independent film category. Bedroom is a more mainstream tragic drama while Drive is just too weird for the Academy's taste.
Shrek is definitely a long shot, but so what? If Beauty and the Beast can get an Oscar nomination, than so can this delightful animated comedy, even though it's a lock to win the animation category. Yet, a practical look at the Academy's history tips Moulin Rouge to take the fifth spot. Of course, the British comedy of manners Gosford Park might slip in, as well.
Let's see how close I get.