Thursday morning was a whirlwind of Golden Globes news. First came the TV and movie nomination announcements, quickly followed by a roundup of TV and movies nomination snubs (natch). The nominated TV and movie stars have even started to react to the news of their success.
Now that the metaphorical dust has settled, we can start to analyze the nominations and predict who will walk away with both the golden statuette and bragging rights come Sunday, Jan. 13 when the Globes concludes its broadcast. Now, these theories are not based solely on our opinions. We have collected hard data, numbers, and figures to accurately predict who will be called up to the stage in front of all of Hollywood and the world to accept their award (and by hard data, numbers, and figures, we mean the overall score for each movie on Rotten Tomatoes). Science! Math! Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Django Unchained 100%
Life of Pi 88%
Zero Dark Thirty 100%
This is the closest race of them all. The biggest takeaway is that not only did all of these dramas get high scores (all but Life of Pi scoring above a 90%), but two — not one but two – films scored a perfect 100%. We’re having a hard time predicting what will walk away victorious between Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty, but the consensus from all the Hollywood.com staff members who have seen both dramas is that ZDT will take the prize.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln 91%
Richard Gere, Arbitrage 85%
John Hawkes, The Sessions 93%
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master 85%
Denzel Washington, Flight 77%
While The Sessions as a whole scored the highest, Daniel Day-Lewis’ performance in the historical drama Lincoln will nab him the Golden Globe. Day-Lewis completely transformed into the iconic role of the 16th president of the United States, complete with the accurate accent and mannerisms with which real-life Abraham Lincoln spoke.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty 100%
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone 82%
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock 67%
Naomi Watts, The Impossible 81%
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea 79%
Though Jessica Chastain’s Zero Dark Thirty will win the Globe for best drama, based on reviews’ discussions on the actress nominees, Marion Cotillard might be the winner for her work in Rust and Bone. The actress plays a woman whose life takes a sharp turn when a horrific accident leaves her a double amputee. Cotillard is also expected to earn an Oscar nod for the same role.
Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 77%
Les Misérables 74%
Moonrise Kingdom 94%
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen 67%
Silver Linings Playbook 90%
Although Wes Anderson‘s Moonrise Kingdom scored the highest out of all these contenders, it is the underdog Salmon Fishing in the Yemen that we think will win the Globe. This charming, intelligent romantic comedy is such a rare gem, and was the biggest pleasant surprise of the nominations.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
Jack Black, Bernie 92%
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook 90%
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables 74%
Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen 67%
Bill Murray, Hyde Park 38%
Though Bradley Cooper is being (deservedly) applauded for his work in Silver Linings Playbook, Jack Black‘s greatest role of his career in Bernie will earn him the Globe. Black managed to make his alleged murderer adorable and loveable, which is no easy feat.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical
Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen 67%
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 77%
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook 90%
Maggie Smith, Quartet 92%
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs 73%
We’re going with the scores on this one. Jennifer Lawrence will win thanks to her portrayal of a widow with issues to match Bradley Cooper’s bipolar character.
Best Animated Feature Film
Hotel Transylvania 43%
Rise of the Guardians 73%
Wreck-It Ralph 87%
Based on the scores, the Globe will either go to Tim Burton‘s Frankenweenie or Wreck-It Ralph. Even though Frankenweenie beat Wreck-It Ralph by 2 percent, we think the nostalgia and star-studded cast behind the voices of the video-game based Wreck-It Ralph will push it to the front of the race.
Who do you think will win? Hit the comments with your thoughts, and tune in to the 70th annual Golden Globes on Sunday, Jan. 13 to see if our predictions came true!
Follow Sydney on Twitter @SydneyBucksbaum
[Photo Credit: Weinstein Company; Columbia Pictures]
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