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Box Office Analysis, May 11: 'Iron Man' Stays on Top, 'Speed' Disappoints
HOLLYWOOD - SUNDAY UPDATE: The studios believe that Mother's Day will help Speed Racer (Warner Bros), What Happens in Vegas (Fox) and Made of Honor (Sony) to stronger-than-expected Sunday performances with Speed Racer, performing even better than on its opening day.
Warner Bros. tells me that they are reporting $6.2M for Friday, $7.3M for Saturday and an anticipated $6.6M for Sunday, for a three-day of $20.1M. That is better than the $18.7M that I projected Saturday night at 9pm.
$20M sounds much better and, combined with solid A- ratings from Cinema Score, it gives the Wachowskis' adaptation of the cartoon classics a chance to continue to score with families next weekend and with boys 12-16.
Fox is also expecting a strong Sunday for the Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy, and it appears that What Happens in Vegas and based on that it will wrap up its opening weekend with an identical $20.1M.
Made of Honor will be a prime choice for females today, and Sony now forecasts a $7.6M 2nd weekend. Meanwhile, Paramount's weekend number for Iron Man is $50.6M, about $1M lower than the $51.77 I called for Saturday night.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Robert Downey Jr.’s superhero debut is proving to be among the biggest hits of all time. Marvel’s Iron Man (Paramount) has flown above this weekend’s expectations, adding an estimated $21.72M on Saturday, which should translate to approximately $51.79M for the three-day. If that number holds, this will be the all-time 11th-best second weekend.
Iron Man's estimated 52.5 percent drop is impressive when compared to the 61.5 percent second weekend tumble suffered by last year's Spider-Man 3, opening on the same May weekend. Mission: Impossible III started the summer blockbuster season in May 2006, and dropped only 48 percent on its second weekend, but its opening three-day was only $47.7M, about half of Iron Man's impressive take.
The Jon Favreau-directed franchise-starter will have pushed past $178M by Monday morning, and one of the obvious question becomes, "How high can Tony Stark fly?" In a survey of studio sources today, the consensus is that Iron Man will fall short of $300M domestic, but $275M-$280M is likely.
Speed Racer (Warner Bros) has taken to the track with a sluggish start. The Wachowskis anime-adaptation has received a mixed-at-best critical reaction, and after a softer-than-expected Friday, the candy-colored CGI spectacle received a 31 percent Saturday bounce for an estimated $7.66M. The film appears headed for a disappointing $18.72M opening weekend, just enough to out-pace What Happens in Vegas (Fox) for second place.
I have been told that Cinema Score surveys give Speed Racer a solid A-, and exit results show strong audience approval and recommend scores. The film is showing strength with family audiences and boys 12-16.
The Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy What Happens in Vegas received just a 5 percent increase day-over-day for a tick over $7M. The film will finish third for the weekend with an estimated $17.6M. Holdover Made of Honor (Sony) is No. 4 for the three-day with $7.29M, followed by Universal's Baby Mama with about $5.57M.
REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) $50.5M - $12,600 per theater average (PTA) - $177M cume
2. Speed Racer (Warner Bros) NEW! - $20.2M - $5,193 PTA
3. What Happens in Vegas (Fox) NEW! - $20M - $5,476 PTA
4. Made of Honor (Sony) - $7.6M - $2,667 PTA - $26.2M cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) - $5.7M - $2,124 PTA - $40.3M cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $3.7M- $1,509 PTA - $50.7M cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $3.1M - $1,373 PTA - $30.7M cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $1.9M - $1,172 PTA - $48.2M cume
9. Nim's Island (Fox) - $1.3M- $694 PTA - $44.2M cume
10. Prom Night (Sony) - $1M - $674 PTA - $42.8M cume
OTHER OPENINGS
The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $54,000 - $6,000 PTA - $54,000 cume
Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $35,500 - $3,944 PTA - $35,500 cume
The Babysitters (Peace Arch) - $20,000 - $1,053 PTA - $20,000 cume
Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $6,184 - $6,184 PTA - $6,184 cume
Surfwise (Magnolia) - $5,287 - $5,287 PTA - $5,287 cume
The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) - $3,175 PTA - $3,175 cume
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