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Final Box Office Analysis, June 8: 'Kung Fu Panda' Karate Kicks Competition

By Steve Mason | Sunday, June 08, 2008

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HOLLYWOOD - Dreamworks has its most successful animated non-sequel ever with Kung Fu Panda (Paramount). The newest movie from Jeffrey Katzenberg's animation house surged 17 percent on Saturday for a $23.4M second day. With a standard 25 percent drop on Sunday, Panda will finish the frame with a better-than-expected $60.95M.

Although the new movie, featuring the voices of Jack Black, Angelina Jolie, Jackie Chan, Seth Rogen, Lucy Liu and David Cross, has fallen short of the all-time animated non-sequel openings of The Incredibles ($70.46M), Finding Nemo ($70.25M) and Monsters, Inc. ($62.57M), it will likely be No. 4 in this elite class, finishing just in front of Pixar's Cars.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR DREAMWORKS ANIMATION
1. Shrek The Third: $121.6M
2. Shrek 2: $108M
3. Kung Fu Panda: $60M (estimated)
4. Shark Tale: $47.6M
5. Madagascar: $47.2M
6. Shrek: $42.3M
7. Over the Hedge: $38.5M
8. Bee Movie: $38M
9. Chicken Run: $17.5M
10. Antz: $17.1M

You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony) has proven to be a bit front-loaded, dipping three percent from opening day. That spells a $14.4M Saturday for the world's best known post-Zionist hairdresser, and the movie appears to have finished right at $40M for the weekend. This is slightly better-than-expected, and Zohan ranks as one of Adam Sandler's top five openings.

All-Time Best Adam Sandler Openings
1. The Longest Yard: $47.6M
2. You Don't Mess With The Zohan: $40M (estimate)
3. Anger Management: $42.2M
4. Big Daddy: $41.5M
5. Click: $40M
6. 50 First Dates: $39.8M
7. The Waterboy: $39.4M
8. Mr. Deeds: $37.1M
9. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry: $34.2M
10. The Wedding Singer: $18.8M

Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of The Crystal Skull (Paramount) got a nice 51 percent bump on Saturday, continuing to play as a flat-out family film. Saturday's haul will be an estimated $9.87M, and Crystal Skull should wrap the weekend with $22.83M or so.

Meanwhile, Carrie, Miranda, Samantha and Charlotte had a decent Saturday with a 11 percent increase from Friday's $7.3M. Sex and the City (Warner Bros) scored an estimated $8.1M Saturday, and it will likely finish its second weekend with $21.07M and a new cume about $1M shy of $100M.

The Strangers (Rogue), proving there is still room in the marketplace for a well-crafted R-rated thriller movie, scared up $3.53M on Saturday, and its second weekend will finish at about $8.78M. The low budget Liv Tyler-Scott Speedman genre pic will have a $37.14M cume by Monday morning.

Iron Man (Paramount) is proving very durable with another $3.24M Saturday and a likely $7.44M weekend. The film will have a new cume of $288.81M, and, at the moment, it appears that both Marvel's Robert Downey Jr. superhero debut and the new Indiana Jones are both headed for $310M in domestic box office.

Iron Man, Indiana Jones 4 and Kung Fu Panda will ultimately make Paramount the first studio ever to release $200M grossing movies back-to-back-to-back. Also, Kung Fu Panda will likely enable Paramount to pass $1 billion in domestic box office on or about June 20. That will be the fastest-ever for a Hollywood studio to reach the billion mark in a calendar year, 19 days sooner than the record set by Paramount last year.

REVISED THREE-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks): $60.95 million; $14,815 PTA; $60.95 million cume
2. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony): $40 million; $11,571 PTA; $40 million cume
3. Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount): $22.83 million; $5,450 PTA; $253 million cume
4. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.): $21.07 million; $6,338 PTA; $99.06 million cume
5. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing): $8.78 million; $3,549 PTA; $37.14 million cume
6. Iron Man (Paramount): $7.44 million; $2,539 PTA; $288.81 million cume
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney): $5.54 million; $1,809 PTA; $125.86 million cume
8. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox): $3.35 million; $1,418 PTA; $72.18 million cume
9. Made of Honor (Sony): $790,000; $1,068 PTA; $44.67 million cume
10. Baby Mama (Universal): $787,000; $855 PTA; $57.91 million cume

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