Sure, Sissy Spacek and Russell Crowe seem shoo-ins to get nominated (and most likely win) for Best Actress and Actor, respectively, and Ron Howard's A Beautiful Mind has Oscar sweep potential.

But the rest--and I do mean all the rest--is up for grabs. While this may not be a big deal for some, for Oscar fanatics like me, it makes things much more difficult...and interesting. It's kind of like patting your head and rubbing your stomach simultaneously.

Oh well, I guess I'm going to actually have to think, really think, about who is going to get an Academy Award nomination when they are announced on Feb. 12. Watch out, this may hurt a little.

Best Actor

Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind

Gene Hackman, The Royal Tenenbaums

Will Smith, Ali

Billy Bob Thornton, The Man Who Wasn't There

Denzel Washington, Training Day

This is not an easy category to pick just five. Crowe is guaranteed a spot for the third year in a row with his brilliant performance as John Forbes Nash Jr. in A Beautiful Mind, as is first-timer Smith for his over-the-top portrayal of the legendary Muhammad Ali in Ali. Golden Globe winner Hackman will probably get a nod for his ailing patriarch in The Royal Tenenbaums.

Washington has been getting the accolades for his complicated villain in Training Day. It could be a good political move to nominate him--and wouldn't the press just buzz about two African-Americans being nominated in the same category?

Finally, I think Thornton will snag a nomination for his work in The Man Who Wasn't There, simply because he's turned in too many good performances this last year, including Monster's Ball and Bandits. He's got to be recognized for something, and playing the barber in the Coens' film noir was the best showcase for the actor.

Others in contention may include Tom Wilkinson's understated performance in In the Bedroom. Wilkinson certainly deserves it but the film's acting Oscar nods may go to its women, Sissy Spacek and Marisa Tomei; see below. Longshot and Golden Globe nominee John Cameron Mitchell may make the list for his colorful work as a transsexual in Hedwig and the Angry Inch, but the Academy would really have to swallow hard to allow that one.

Best Actress

Halle Berry, Monster's Ball

Judi Dench, Iris

Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge

Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom

Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones' Diary

The top four are pretty much set in stone, but it's the fifth nomination that's the tricky one. Berry has been praised up and down for her performance as the troubled young widow in Monster's Ball and will most likely get her first Oscar nod. Veteran Dench keeps churning out Oscar-worthy performances year after year, and does so again this year. Dench portrays novelist Iris Murdoch, who was stricken with Alzheimer's Disease, in Iris.

The ever-popular Kidman will probably get her first nomination for her performance as the doomed courtesan Satine in the musical Moulin Rouge. Kidman put in another good turn in the creepy The Others last year, but Rouge will be her signature piece. She sings, for heaven's sake.

Oscar-winning Spacek, however, is the closest thing to a sure bet in this Oscar race. She's won just about every critic's award and the Golden Globe for her tortured mother dealing with grief in In the Bedroom, so don't be surprised if we hear another down-to-earth acceptance speech from the Texan native.

Who will get the fifth nomination? I've picked Zellweger for her chubby, wine guzzling, chain smoking heroine in Bridget Jones's Diary. The Texan was just too convincing as a British lass (think Gwyneth Paltrow). But the incredible breakout performance by Aussie actress Naomi Watts playing duel roles in Mulholland Drive might sneak in there, as might the disturbing turn by Tilda Swinton as a mother protecting her child in The Deep End.