The Academy Awards aren't a one-day affair. From the start of the prestige movie season—an ambiguous time that starts as early as the end of September—all the way to the big day, studios spend buckets of money putting their big titles in front of Academy voters, talent embark on campaigns to stay in the limelight for five months and maintain momentum and Oscar know-it-alls spend eons debating who's leading the race. Thus, there are frontrunners.

For many, predicting the Oscars is a science, tangible evidence that can be sifted and parsed through to find clear winners in advance. Currently logic would tell you that the modern day, silent film The Artist is on the brink of taking home gold. The movie, directed by Michel Hazanavicius and starring Jean Dujardin, picked up the Best Comedy at the Golden Globes, Best Picture at the Critics Choice, Best Picture at the BAFTA awards, Best Director at the DGAs and Best Actor at the SAG awards. The pieces are in place, the road has been paved, there's no stopping The Artist.

Right? Not so fast.

The Academy is comprised of creative types from across Hollywood: actors, writers, directors, producers engineers and even publicists. Lots of opinions, many not represented leading up to the Oscars. It's easy to think that, by the end of the race, everyone's voting like a hivemind—but not so. I asked an Academy Voter (who decided to remain anonymous) to gauge whether The Artist was the clear winner and had his vote, but he's sticking to his guns:

To me, Hugo is unquestionably the best picture of the year; utilizing every aspect of the craft of movie making at its finest, telling a touching story that encapsulates both the history and importance of movies, taking 3D to a whole new artistic level and directed by one of the true modern masters of moviemaking. Any conceivable reason one might have for voting for The Artist, is true tenfold of Hugo. Plus, call me an early adopter, but I prefer talkies. I think they're really going somewhere.

Besides making it clear that Hugo is still a widely adored film in Hollywood, there's another piece of info to pull from this entertaining quote: there's The Artist backlash. Voters may be looking to vary things up after months of aggressive campaigning from the legendary Harvey Weinstein (who nabbed a Best Picture Oscar last year for The King's Speech). What else stands a chance? Hugo is up there, another movie that tickles the cinematic nostalgia bone of voters and comes paired with cinematic heavy-hitter Martin Scorsese. The movie nabbed the most nominations (eleven) and took home a handful of critics awards. In the final moments of the race, it's a possibility.

Creeping up behind The Artist and Hugo are The Help and The Descendants, two more contenders who no one should doubt as probable upsets. When The Descendants went wide in December, it was considered a serious frontrunner, with a George Clooney career-defining role to boot. Since, the buzz has died down, but a recent WGA writing win may have bumped it back into contention. You can't forget how much Hollywood loves Clooney (note: they really love Clooney).

After a big win at the SAG Awards for Best Ensemble and both Actress awards, The Help, a movie without the pedigree of the prior three films, is right up there with the big boys. Actors make up the largest percentage of the Academy voters, which already gives the picture a leg up. Throw in the fact that it's a summer crowd-pleaser that took in $169 million at the box office (The Artist has only managed $28 here in the U.S.) and you have the signs of a dark horse. The Help may not scratch the same itch movies like The Artist or Hugo do for older voters fond of a time that once was, but it's classic filmmaking through-and-through.

There are frontrunners at this year's Oscars, but enough to keep the race tight. Who will you bet your money on?

You can contact Matt Patches directly on Twitter @misterpatches and remember to follow @Hollywood_com!