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Box Office Analysis, July 6: 'Hancock' Has a Profitable Fourth of July Weekend

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Jul 06, 2008 | 11:30am EDT

Will Smith's Hancock, despite negative reviews and early box office prognosticators forecasting disaster, surged dramatically on Saturday to $26.1M (in my Friday report, (I projected $26M on Friday night), and Sony is expected another $19.1M today. That would give the Peter Berg-directed film an excellent $107.32M for its five-and-a-half-day day opening.

By any reasonable measure this is an outstanding start for Hancock, especially given that it is a new character not based on a comic book character or a toy line, like last year's Transformers. Even with a conservative 2.6 multiple (opening weekend multiplied by 2.6), the movie will reach $200M domestic. Even though competing studios have been "spinning" Hancock as a disappointment, any of them would be thrilled to have a $200M hit on their slate.

Will Smith has grabbed his 12th $100M+ grossing film, tied with Harrison Ford and trailing only Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise and Eddie Murphy.

MOST $100M+ HITS IN A CAREER

(Including animated films & excluding cameos)

Tom Hanks: 15

Tom Cruise: 14

Eddie Murphy: 13

Will Smith and Harrison Ford: 12 (including Hancock)

Jim Carrey and Robin Williams: 11 

Mel Gibson and Matt Damon: 9 

Bruce Willis and Jack Nicholson: 8

Will Smith, however, will have achieved something unprecedented--a feat never done by the Toms - Hanks and Cruise. Hancock will be his eighth consecutive $100M+ grossing blockbuster. Hanks and Cruise both had career-best streaks of seven films with $100M+. Here is Will's current streak.

2002: Men in Black II; $52.14M opening; $190.41M cume

2003: Bad Boys II; $46.52M opening; $138.6M cume

2004: I, Robot; $52.17M opening; $144.8M cume

2004: Shark Tale; $47.6M opening; $160.86M cume

2005: Hitch; $43.12M opening; $179.49M cume

2006: The Pursuit of Happyness; $26.54M opening; $163.56M cume

2007: I Am Legend; $77.21M opening; $256.39M cume

2008: Hancock--estimated $107M by Monday

Pixar's Wall-E (Disney) Pixar's latest masterpiece, scored another $33.41M over the three-day for a new cume of $128.13M. That gives the lonely little robot the 3rd-best 10-day gross for a Pixar movie, trailing only Finding Nemo and The Incredibles.

10-DAY GROSSES FOR PIXAR FILMS

1. Finding Nemo - $144.04M opening

2. The Incredibles - $143.25M opening

3. Wall-E - $128.1M opening

4. Monsters, Inc. - $122.15M opening

5. Cars - $117.05M opening

6. Ratatouille - $109.53M opening

7. Toy Story 2 - $57.38M opening

8. Toy Story - $49.1M opening

9. A Bug's Life - $46.11M opening

And, more impressively by Monday, Wall-E will have scored the all-time fifth-best 10-day gross for an animated film.

ALL-TIME TOP 10-DAY GROSSES FOR ANIMATED FILMS

1. Shrek The Third - $185.17M

2. Shrek 2 - $184.89M

3. Finding Nemo - $144.04M

4. The Incredibles - $143.32M

5. Wall-E - $128.1M

6. The Simpsons Movie - $128.06M

7. Monsters, Inc - $122.15M

8. Kung Fu Panda - $117.28M

9. Cars - $117.05M

10. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $115.75M

Univetrsal's Wanted was down almost 60 percent from its opening weekend, but still topped $20M for the three-day. The Matrix-style action picture has a new cume of just over $90M and hopes for a franchise have not been dampened in the slightest.

Finally, Kit Kittredge: An American Girl only managed $3.6M for the weekend, which is a huge disappointment for Picturehouse. After huge per theatre averages from its limited runs, the specialty distributor elected to expand on July 2, and the move clearly backfired in the wake of Wall-E's huge grosses. 

STUDIO-REPORTED THREE-DAY ESTIMATES

1. NEW! Hancock (Sony): $66 million, $15,645 PTA, $107.32 million cume 

2. Wall-E (Disney): $$33.41 million, $8,370 PTA, $128.13 million cume  

3. Wanted (Universal): $20.6 million, $6,470 PTA, $90.77 million cume  

4. Get Smart (Warner Bros.): $11.12 million, $3,112 PTA, $98.11 million cume

5. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount): $7.5 million, $2,224 PTA, $193.39 million cume

6. Incredible Hulk (Universal): $4.97 million, $1,634 PTA, $124.91 million cume

7. Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount): $3.94 million, $1,797 PTA, $306.59 million cume

8. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse): $3.6 million, $1,953 PTA, $6.12 million cume

9. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.): $2.34 million, $1,835 PTA, $144.86 million cume 

10. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony): $2 million, $1,155 PTA, $94.78 million cume 

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