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How Do the Critics Choice Awards Predict the Emmy Wins and Nominations?

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Jun 20, 2014 | 3:58pm EDT

Orange is the New BlackNetflix

The Fourth Annual Critics' Choice Television Awards were held Thursday night, with AMC's Breaking Bad, Netflix's Orange Is the New Black, and FX's Fargo coming away with the big wins. The awards, which are chosen by TV critics, have a knack for recognizing the programs and performances that are often overlooked by the other big television award shows. But do the slightly out-there nominees have a chance for gold when it comes to the Primetime Emmys? We've decided to predict the nominees and winners of this year's Emmys based on the winners of last nights Critics Choice Awards. The two award shows might have more winners in common than you would expect.

BEST DRAMA SERIES


Critics' Choice Awards
The Americans 

Breaking Bad
Game of Thrones 


The Good Wife 
Masters of Sex 
True Detective 

Emmy Predictions
Breaking Bad
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
House of Cards
Mad Men

True Detective

Last year's Emmy winner, Breaking Bad, is coming off a fantastic final season, so it's hard to reason how Vince Gilligan's masterwork won't win the night's big award yet again. But on the slim chance that Bad doesn't win (and we mean slim), True Detective is the most sensible alternative. We don't expect low profile dramas like Masters of Sex and The Americans to be recognized by the Emmys, and the hype on Downton Abbey has cooled of considerably this year. Another Emmy favorite, Homeland, had its worst season yet last year, freeing the category up for some new blood.

BEST COMEDY SERIES


Critics' Choice Awards
The Big Bang Theory 

Broad City 

Louie 

Orange Is the New Black 

Silicon Valley 

Veep 

Emmy Predictions
The Big Bang Theory
Louie
Modern Family
Orange Is the New Black
Parks and Recreation

Veep

Freshman dramedy Orange Is the New Black will certainly get nominated at the Emmys, but we're doubtful that Netflix's prison series will win the top prize like it did at the Critics' Choice Awards, certainly not in a race that includes Modern Family. The juggernaut of a sitcom has won the category four times in a row, and there's nothing with enough buzz to stop it's warpath. Elsewhere, Critics' Choice nominees like Silicon Valley and Broad City are way off the Emmys radar, and don't stand a chance of getting nominated.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES


Critics' Choice Awards
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Hugh Dancy, Hannibal 

Freddie Highmore, Bates Motel 

Matthew McConaughey, True Detective 

Matthew Rhys, The Americans 

Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex 

Emmy Predictions
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
John Hamm, Mad Men
Damien Lewis, Homeland
Matthew McConaughey, True Detective
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

McConaughey came out on top at the Critic's Choice Awards, but despite his massive performance in True Detective, we're doubtful he will best Cranston at the Emmys. We're expecting the rest of the category's Emmy nominees to be rounded out with the usual suspects. While the critics recognized the great performances in Hannibal, The Americans, and Bates Motel,  we're doubtful that any of those shows will make it to the Emmys this year, or any year for that matter.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Critics' Choice Awards

Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex 

Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel 

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife 

Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black 

Keri Russell, The Americans 

Robin Wright, House of Cards

Emmy Predictions
Claire Danes, Homeland
Julianna Margules, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards

When the dust settles, we're expecting Tatiana Maslany to also win the Emmy in this category. At this point, her hype is insurmountable, and riots might break out if she doesn't leave the Nokia theater with something golden.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES


Critics' Choice Awards
Louis C.K., Louie
Chris Messina, The Mindy Project 

Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley 

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory 

Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation 

Robin Williams, The Crazy Ones 

Emmy Predictions
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Band Theory
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Robin Williams, The Crazy Ones

The Big Bang Theory's Jim Parsons will likely walk home with both awards. In terms of the other nominations, there's no way Chris Messina or Thomas Middleditch have a chance at securing an Emmy nomination. We're also betting that Robin Williams gets nominated, due mostly due organization's usual affection for "veterans" ... or so the Emmys have an excuse to invite the actor to the show and hear his Genie voice.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES


Critics' Choice Awards
Ilana Glazer, Broad City 

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Wendi McLendon-Covey, The Goldbergs 


Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation 

Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer 
Emmy Rossum, Shameless 

Emmy Predictions
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreaton


Louis-Dreyfus' foul-mouthed vice-prez will likely win the Emmy along with the Critics' Choice Award this year. As for the other nomination slots, Glazer and Schumer have no chance at getting nominated for Emmys. We're expecting the rest of the nomination list to be filled up with Emmys regulars like Melissa McCarthy and Edie Falco.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES


Critics' Choice Awards
Josh Charles, The Good Wife 

Walton Goggins, Justified 

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad 

Peter Sarsgaard, The Killing 

Jon Voight, Ray Donovan 

Jeffrey Wright, Boardwalk Empire 

Emmy Predictions
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Walton Goggins, Justified
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Dean Norris, Breaking Bad
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Jeffery Wright, Boardwalk Empire

Aaron Paul seems like a lock for the Emmys this year. The only person we could see upsetting what is basically destiny at this point is Peter Dinklage, who had a massive year on Game of Thrones. As for the other nominees, we are actually expecting the two award shows to stack up pretty similarly. Mandy Patinkin will definitely get an Emmy nod, while there might be enough space in the mix for long-snubbed Walton Goggins. One can dream, right?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES


Critics' Choice Awards
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife 

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad 

Annet Mahendru, The Americans 

Melissa McBride, The Walking Dead 

Maggie Siff, Sons of Anarchy

Bellamy Young, Scandal

Emmy Predictions
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Michelle Monaghan, True Detective
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

While Anna Gunn didn't secure a Critics' Choice Award for the last season of Breaking Bad, we're betting she goes home with an Emmy this September. As for the other nominees, we don't expect Maggie Siff, Melissa McBride, and Annet Mahendru to get an Emmy nod, even though each actress certainly deserves the recognition.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Critics' Choice Awards
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine 

Keith David, Enlisted 

Tony Hale, Veep

Albert Tsai, Trophy Wife 
Christopher Evan Welch, Silicon Valley 
Jeremy Allen White, Shameless 

Emmy Predictions
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Tony Hale, Veep
Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation

At this point, the supporting actor in a comedy category should be renamed the "Which Modern Family actor hasn't won in a while?" and that honor goes to Ferguson. Even though the Critics' Choice Awards don't feature a single nominee from ABC's dominant sitcom, expect at least three nominees from the show on Emmy night. Four if Ed O'Neil sneaks his way onto the bill. Also, kudos to the Critics Choice awards for nominating Albert Tsai for Trophy Wife. Bert will live in our hearts forever. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
 

Critics' Choice Awards
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory 
Laverne Cox, Orange Is the New Black 

Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory 

Allison Janney, Mom 

Kate Mulgrew, Orange Is the New Black 

Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie 

Emmy Predictions
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family

Allison Janney, Mom
Kate Mulgrew, Orange Is the New Black
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Merrit Weaver, Nurse Jackie

It might be crazy talk, but we think this category is Orange Is the New Black's best chance for its first Emmy. The show has such a dynamite supporting cast and heavy following that it may be able to crack the winner's circle in its first year of eligibility. We're thinking Kate Mulgrew has a good chance since Modern Family isn't nearly as dominant in this category as it is in Best Supporting Actor.

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