First, the Golden Globes. Now, the Screen Actors Guild Awards. How much do these two affect the Oscars race?
Plenty.
Although it is a relatively new show (in its eighth year), the SAG Awards have become a big-time Oscar forecaster, being that they are the last of the major awards announcements before the Academy Awards are handed out March 24. Not to mention, actors make up about 25 percent of the Academy, the largest branch of voters in AMPAS.
Statistically, 11 of the 14 past SAG winners in the lead movie acting categories have gone on to win the Academy Award and seven of the 14 SAG winners in the supporting acting area have done the same. OK, so the best supporting categories are a little less certain, but still, about half of the SAG winners hit the Oscar mark. When you look at who won both SAG and Golden Globe awards, you usually get a pretty clear picture of which actors may go home with Oscar gold.
This year, the Oscar race still seems to be all over the map.
Here we chart the winners of this year’s SAG and Golden Globe awards to see who might be an Oscar frontrunner. As well, we’ve included your votes in our user poll (to date) to find out whom moviegoers (rather than the established Academy mucky-mucks) think should win.
| SAG Awards | Golden Globes | Hollywood.com User’s Poll | |
| Best Actor |  Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind |
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind |
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind |
| Best Actress | Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball |
Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom |
Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge |
| Best Supporting Actor | Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring |
Jim Broadbent, Iris |
Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring |
| Best Supporting Actress | Helen Mirren, Gosford Park |
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind |
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind |
| Best Picture | Gosford Park |
A Beautiful Mind |
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring |
To vote in our user poll, click here.
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In the comparison, there is only one frontrunner: Russell Crowe.
He’s on the top of everyone’s list for his stunning portrayal as the schizophrenic mathematician John Nash in A Beautiful Mind. One would think the Academy will fall in line with this thinking, but those Academy members can be a wily–and political–bunch. Denzel Washington is Crowe’s only main competition and could get the award because 1) he hasn’t won the Best Actor award yet and many feel he’s been shortchanged and 2) with the unprecedented number of African Americans nominated for Oscars, one of those nominees should win and 3) the Academy isn’t that fond of Russell Crowe. Could be a close race.
Halle Berry’s now a factor in the Best Actress Oscar category, thanks to her SAG best actress win for Monster’s Ball. While her performance as a widowed mother in the film has been hailed by critics as her best, she hasn’t been receiving the accolades her closest competitor, Sissy Spacek, has–until now. Spacek still seems to be the Oscar frontrunner after having won the Golden Globe and numerous critics’ awards for her performance as a grieving mother in In the Bedroom. Our users are so far betting on a win by the lovely and popular Nicole Kidman for her turn in Moulin Rouge. Unfortunately, folks, Nicole doesn’t have a prayer–not this year, anyway.
After the Golden Globes handed the best supporting actor award to Jim Broadbent for his portrayal of Iris Murdoch’s husband in Iris, it seemed to follow a long list of wins by the actor from various critics’ and film associations. WithIan McKellen’s SAG win, however, it has become clear that Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring deserves more than just technical awards come Oscar time. The Academy may very well bestow the Best Supporting Actor honors to McKellen for his performance as the wise wizard Gandalf to even things out (since it’s unlikely Rings will win either Best Picture or director). And it’s obvious, he is the popular choice with the people.
Helen Mirren’s SAG win for her performance as the self-sacrificing servant in Gosford Park was a surprise in the best supporting actress category, since Golden Globe winner Jennifer Connelly’s turn as the long-suffering wife in A Beautiful Mind has consistently been the favorite choice, with the Globes and our users. Connelly still has the edge going into the Oscars, but the Academy likes to surprise everyone in this category by picking someone out of the blue (i.e. last year’s winner Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock over favorite Kate Hudson for Almost Famous). It could be anyone’s race.
Some say the best ensemble award given to the cast of a movie could be considered an insight into the Best Picture Oscar winner, although only two SAG best ensemble awards in eight years have gone on to win Best Picture. This year SAG gave it to Gosford Park, but it makes sense, doesn’t it? The cast was enormous and the fact that each actor managed to have their moment is a feat in itself–but as Oscar’s pick for Best Picture? Probably not. And it’s nice to see our users want an epic fantasy like Lord of the Rings win it all–but, sorry, chances are very slim. A Beautiful Mind is still the Best Picture frontrunner.
