Last year was a piece of cake.
Sure, there were some variances between the different critics organizations…wait, I take that back. Besides a few meager nods to the indie darling Lost in Translation, there really weren’t any inconsistencies at all: By the time the Golden Globes were handed out this time last year, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King had Oscar written all over it. And everyone knew it.
The 2004 race for Oscar gold, however, is a bit harder to predict–and it may be a testament to the astounding level of quality films that make the Best Picture frontrunner so unclear.
Alexander Payne’s wine-soaked dramedy Sideways seems to the favorite among critics, topping the Los Angeles Film Critics Assoc., the New York Film Critics Circle and the Boston Society of Film Critics lists. The National Society of Film Critics, as well as the Seattle Film Critics, picked Clint Eastwood‘s boxing drama Million Dollar Baby, while the National Film Board of Review chose the whimsical Finding Neverland. Martin Scorsese‘s Howard Hughes saga The Aviator was the Broadcast Film Critics best bet. And us crazy Online critics, along with Washington D.C. critics, picked the forever-quirky Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
Then came the Golden Globes–considered by many the true barometer of what films will go on to win an Academy Award. This year, The Hollywood Foreign Press Association narrowed the field when it crowned The Aviator best dramatic motion picture, and Sideways best musical or comedy.
As Oscar hopefuls wait on pins and needles for the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences to announce the 77th Academy Award nominations Jan. 25 at 8:30 a.m. EST, we’re taking a guess as to who will snag nods–even though there are easily more than five deserving choices in the top six categories.
Best Picture
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways
Save for a few (and hopeful) surprises, this seems to be the likely list. On the one end of the spectrum, there’s the big-budgeted The Aviator, not only a biopic on an endlessly fascinating man but also a sentimental look at Hollywood to boot. Big, big brownie points. On the other end, there’s the delightfully romantic, character-driven indie Sideways, which everyone can’t stop talking about. And then there’s everything in between. The Peter Pan-inspired Finding Neverland and the stirring Million Dollar Baby may find soft places in the voters’ hearts, while the musically charged Ray will certainly pump things up.
Honorable Mentions: Although Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind has a few strikes against it, including the fact it was released ages ago (although the DVD release may help voters remember), it certainly has a possibility of making to the final five. Others that could sneak in are the intense Hotel Rwanda and a crop of stellar foreign films, including House of Flying Daggers and A Very Long Engagement. But those are long shots.
Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
Mike Nichols, Closer
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
This is a classic case of old school vs. new school. For the veterans on the list, Nichols should get a nod for turning in another dark gem about how we can screw up relationships; Eastwood won’t be overlooked for his more tender version on human companionship; and Scorsese will soar with his vision of Hughes’ life. As the new kids on the block, Payne‘s subtle Sideways direction should earn him a spot (but he’ll probably get more recognition for the film’s intimate script), while Forster‘s fanciful handling of Peter Pan‘s genesis should get voters to clap in his favor.
Honorable Mentions: Ray‘s Taylor Hackford pushed Nichols out of a Directors Guild nomination, but it seems unlikely there will be a repeat performance. Other strong contenders include Zhang Yimou for his masterfully inventive House of Flying Daggers as well as Michel Gondry for his equally imaginative work on Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
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Best Actor
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Honestly, there were so many fine performances by actors in 2004, it’s a shame they couldn’t have nominated more. But as it stands, the givens will most likely be Depp, as the kindly Peter Pan author J.M. Barrie; DiCaprio, as the dashing yet terribly troubled Howard Hughes; and Giamatti, as a sad sack looking for a little compassion. The fourth nod could be up for grabs, but we think it’ll go to Cheadle, as a heroic hotel owner who saved lives during a horrific civil war. These top-notch Best Actor nominee potentials, however, are going to have a devilish time trying to beat Foxx, whose electrifying performance as the legendary R&B great Ray Charles is the only possible shoo-in for the Oscar.
Honorable Mentions: But then again, a nomination could go to anyone of these fellows as well: Javier Bardem for his portrait of a quadriplegic, wanting to die, in The Sea Inside; Liam Neeson as the determined sex researcher Alfred Kinsey in Kinsey; and Jim Carrey for his achingly subdued performance as a man trying to hold onto love in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Get ready for the rematch of the century. In 2000, Bening was the favorite to win the Oscar for her searing performance in American Beauty but saw the gold statue handed over to newcomer Swank for her devastating turn as a girl-gone-boy in Boys Don’t Cry. Now, history is repeating itself. Bening is once again the favorite for her thrilling portrayal of an actress of a certain age in Julia, with Swank gaining momentum as the scrappy, headstrong boxer in Baby. But there are three other spots on the list. Staunton‘s gracefully stoic performance in Drake has the critics’ approval, while Winslet quirky turn in Eternal should earn her a fourth nomination. The final choice was a little more difficult to pick but ultimately we think Moreno‘s fresh approach as a teenage drug mule in Maria is the best bet to get a nod.
Honorable Mentions: Uma Thurman‘s performance as the martial arts kickin’, sword fightin’ heroine with a heart of gold in Kill Bill Vol. 2 could be up there. As could the equally skilled martial arts fighter Ziyi Zhang for her touching turn in House of Flying Daggers. You just never know.
Best Supporting Actor
David Carradine, Kill Bill Vol. 2
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen, Closer
This list is pretty solid, chock-full of mesmerizing performances. Carradine plays the poignant yet menacing Bill in Kill Bill Vol. 2, while Owen plays a wounded yet menacing husband in Closer. Church is a washed-up actor plagued with insecurities in Sideways, while Foxx, in what could be his second nod, is just plain plagued–by a hit man in Collateral. Rounding out the top five, Freeman could score as the quiet but wise gym janitor in Baby.
Honorable Mentions: Peter Sarsgaard, whose quietly intense performance in Shattered Glass, missed the list last year but he could get another chance this year with his turn as the bisexual research assistant in Kinsey. James Garner, too, could get a nod for his touching performance as a man caring for his wife in The Notebook.
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Natalie Portman, Closer
Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate
An eclectic group of actresses could make their way to the supporting list this year. Veterans Blanchett, who gives an unaffected take on the late great Katharine Hepburn in The Aviator; Linney, who plays the endlessly patient wife in Kinsey; and Streep, who chews it up as a steely senator in Manchurian Candidate all merit nominations. While newcomers Madsen, as the comely waitress-cum-wine lover in Sideways, and Portman, as the spunky stripper in Closer, should see their first nods.
Honorable Mentions: Another two to watch out for are Kate Winslet and Regina King, as two long-suffers–one a widow, the other a mistress–in Finding Neverland and Ray, respectively.
