Another year, another hard time pinpointing an Academy Award frontrunner. But that’s OK, we kind of like it that way—makes the race much more interesting.
The critic and film associations—including Los Angeles, New York, Boston, National Board of Review, National Society of Film Critics, Broadcast Film Critics and a slew of others—are all over the map, choosing anything from Martin Scorsese’s gritty crime drama The Departed to Clint Eastwood’s WWII saga Letters From Iwo Jima to Paul Greengrass’ 9/11 tragedy United 93. And to add fuel to the fire, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association just anointed Golden Globes to the splashy Dreamgirls and the intense Babel. The category is wide open.
Now, as Oscar hopefuls wait on pins and needles for the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences to announce the 79th Academy Award nominations Jan. 23 at 5:30 a.m. PST, we’re taking a guess as to who will at least snag nods.
Best Picture
Babel
Dreamgirls
The Departed
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
This is one of the tighter races in recent memory—and narrowing down five choices wasn’t easy. The Departed, Dreamgirls and The Queen are pretty much a given, with Babel a definite possibility, which leaves the fifth pick up in the air. We’ll go with Little Miss Sunshine since the Academy loves feel-good movies about dysfunctional families and broken-down yellow VW buses.
Also for your consideration: Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (that’d be a hoot, wouldn’t it?); Letters From Iwo Jima; Little Children; United 93
Best Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Smith’s earnest single dad in The Pursuit of Happyness could hand the actor his second nod, while and Whitaker’s take on dictator Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland should give the actor his first guaranteed spot on an Oscar list. While Whitaker’s latest Golden Globe win (plus many critic wins) puts him on the front burner, Academy members may have a soft spot for seven-time nominee O’Toole, who has never won. His turn as an actor in his twilight years in Venus might change this. DiCaprio, who had a heck of a year, should get his second Best Actor nod for his South African mercenary in Blood Diamond (and we give him a shot at Best Supporting Actor for The Departed, see below), which leaves the fifth spot again. We’re banking on Cohen to get his first Oscar nomination for his lovable but highly inappropriate Kazakhstan reporter.
Also for your consideration: Screen Actors Guild nominee Ryan Gosling for his searing turn as a teacher battling drug addiction in Half Nelson
Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
What a great year for strong female performances, a rarity in this day and age. Our solid Best Actress list is mostly filled with Oscar veterans—and one newbie: Cruz, who could get her first nod as the tormented young mother in Volver. Four-time nominee Winslet as the bored housewife in Little Children should get a fifth one, while Dench—nominated five times with one win—should get her sixth nod as the lonely teacher in Notes on a Scandal. We’ve lost count for Streep, but she’s guaranteed another one as fashion Satan incarnate in The Devil Wears Prada. But two-time nominee Mirren will be hard to beat as the humanized Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen, probably the only lock to win an Oscar.
Also for your consideration: Annette Bening as a seriously twisted mom in Running with Scissors and Maggie Gyllenhaal as an ex-convict trying to get her little girl back in Sherrybaby.
Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt, Babel
Michael Sheen, The Queen
We’ve chosen a few names off the beaten track, but we feel confident about our picks. Murphy is probably the only sure bet to get his first nom for his performance as a fading R&B singer in Dreamgirls. But the Academy should give first-timer Haley a nod for his scary turn as a pedophile in Little Children and Pitt should get his second nod for his husband dealing with a potentially tragic situation in Babel. We also think DiCaprio will get his third nod here for his performance as the good cop in The Departed. And for our money, we pick Sheen’s effecting turn as the dashing Prime Minister Tony Blair in The Queen.
Also for your consideration: Djimon Hounsou’s tormented father in Blood Diamond; Matt Damon’s bad cop, Mark Wahlberg’s vengeful cop or Jack Nicholson’s demented mobster in The Departed; and Alan Arkin’s irascible grandfather in Little Miss Sunshine.
Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Another solid list of really wonderful performances: Barraza and Kikuchi should see their first Oscar nominations as two very different women dealing with similar cultural and language barriers in Babel, while Blanchett’s turn as the wounded object of Judi Dench’s affection in Notes on a Scandal should give this Oscar veteran her third nod. Young newcomer Breslin could see her first nod for her adorable performance as the would-be beauty contestant in Little Miss Sunshine. But again, the one to beat is first-timer Hudson, who belts songs through Dreamgirls like it’s nobody’s business.
Also for your consideration: Emily Blunt’s acerbically insecure assistant in The Devil Wears Prada; Catherine O’Hara’s sad sack actress looking for her own nomination in For Your Consideration.
Best Director
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Although we firmly believe this is six-time nominee Scorsese’s year to finally scoop up his very own Best Director Oscar, he could be faced with formidable competition. First-timers Inarritu and Greengrass both turned in finely tuned films, as did Frears, who could be looking at his second nomination. And as our fifth pick, Condon, who has previously been nominated in the writing categories (winning one for Gods and Monsters) should see his first nod in this category.
Also for your consideration: Volver’s Pedro Almodovar; Little Children’s Todd Field; Letters From Iwo Jima’s Clint Eastwood
