DarkMode/LightMode
Light Mode

Box Office Analysis, May 11: ‘Iron Man’ Stays on Top, ‘Speed’ Disappoints

SUNDAY UPDATE: The studios believe that Mother’s Day will help Speed Racer (Warner Bros), What Happens in Vegas (Fox) and Made of Honor (Sony) to stronger-than-expected Sunday performances with Speed Racer, performing even better than on its opening day.

Warner Bros. tells me that they are reporting $6.2M for Friday, $7.3M for Saturday and an anticipated $6.6M for Sunday, for a three-day of $20.1M. That is better than the $18.7M that I projected Saturday night at 9pm.

$20M sounds much better and, combined with solid A- ratings from Cinema Score, it gives the Wachowskis’ adaptation of the cartoon classics a chance to continue to score with families next weekend and with boys 12-16.

- Advertisement -

Fox is also expecting a strong Sunday for the Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy, and it appears that What Happens in Vegas and based on that it will wrap up its opening weekend with an identical $20.1M.

Made of Honor will be a prime choice for females today, and Sony now forecasts a $7.6M 2nd weekend. Meanwhile, Paramount’s weekend number for Iron Man is $50.6M, about $1M lower than the $51.77 I called for Saturday night.

SATURDAY NIGHT:

Robert Downey Jr.’s superhero debut is proving to be among the biggest hits of all time. Marvel’s Iron Man (Paramount) has flown above this weekend’s expectations, adding an estimated $21.72M on Saturday, which should translate to approximately $51.79M for the three-day. If that number holds, this will be the all-time 11th-best second weekend.

- Advertisement -

Iron Man‘s estimated 52.5 percent drop is impressive when compared to the 61.5 percent second weekend tumble suffered by last year’s Spider-Man 3, opening on the same May weekend. Mission: Impossible III started the summer blockbuster season in May 2006, and dropped only 48 percent on its second weekend, but its opening three-day was only $47.7M, about half of Iron Man‘s impressive take.

The Jon Favreau-directed franchise-starter will have pushed past $178M by Monday morning, and one of the obvious question becomes, “How high can Tony Stark fly?” In a survey of studio sources today, the consensus is that Iron Man will fall short of $300M domestic, but $275M-$280M is likely. 

Speed Racer (Warner Bros) has taken to the track with a sluggish start. The Wachowskis anime-adaptation has received a mixed-at-best critical reaction, and after a softer-than-expected Friday, the candy-colored CGI spectacle received a 31 percent Saturday bounce for an estimated $7.66M. The film appears headed for a disappointing $18.72M opening weekend, just enough to out-pace What Happens in Vegas (Fox) for second place.

I have been told that Cinema Score surveys give Speed Racer a solid A-, and exit results show strong audience approval and recommend scores. The film is showing strength with family audiences and boys 12-16.

The Cameron Diaz/Ashton Kutcher comedy What Happens in Vegas received just a 5 percent increase day-over-day for a tick over $7M. The film will finish third for the weekend with an estimated $17.6M. Holdover Made of Honor (Sony) is No. 4 for the three-day with $7.29M, followed by Universal’s Baby Mama with about $5.57M.

REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES

- Advertisement -

1. Iron Man (Paramount) $50.5M – $12,600 per theater average (PTA) – $177M cume

2. Speed Racer (Warner Bros) NEW! – $20.2M – $5,193 PTA

3. What Happens in Vegas (Fox) NEW! – $20M – $5,476 PTA

4. Made of Honor (Sony) – $7.6M – $2,667 PTA – $26.2M cume

5. Baby Mama  (Universal) – $5.7M – $2,124 PTA – $40.3M cume

6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – $3.7M- $1,509 PTA – $50.7M cume

7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) – $3.1M – $1,373 PTA – $30.7M cume

8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – $1.9M – $1,172 PTA – $48.2M cume

9. Nim’s Island (Fox) – $1.3M- $694 PTA – $44.2M cume

10. Prom Night (Sony) – $1M – $674 PTA – $42.8M cume

OTHER OPENINGS 

The Fall (Roadside Attractions) – $54,000 – $6,000 PTA – $54,000 cume 

Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) – $35,500 – $3,944 PTA – $35,500 cume 

The Babysitters (Peace Arch) – $20,000 – $1,053 PTA – $20,000 cume 

Bloodline (Cinema Libre) – $6,184 – $6,184 PTA – $6,184 cume 

Surfwise (Magnolia) – $5,287 – $5,287 PTA – $5,287 cume 

The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) – $3,175 PTA – $3,175 cume

- Advertisement -

Hollywood.com is highlighting donation opportunities from trusted organizations like The Salvation Army – Southern California Division to support wildfire relief efforts. Donations are made directly to The Salvation Army via their official website, and Hollywood.com does not collect or manage any funds.