How big will Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull open?
Lucasfilm and distributor Paramount are keeping this certain mega-hit under wraps until Sunday, May 18. The film will have an afternoon press screening Cannes with another Sunday night. Reviews will likely start posting as soon as Sunday night. This movie is, however, critic proof.
A studio exec shared the latest tracking data for Kingdom of the Crystal Skull with me, and these numbers are spectacular, especially given that the film will not be in theatrical release for another nine days. Un-Aided Awareness, an excellent measure of anticipation, is already at 15 percent, better than Prince Caspian, which opens this Friday. Definite Interest for the new Indy is a staggering 63 percent, and it has an overall First Choice of 28 percent. This is all a way of saying that the movie cannot miss.
It opens on Thursday, May 22 at midnight (Wednesday night), so this will make for a huge opening day, which I am projecting in the $41M-$44M range (that includes Wednesday night after midnight screenings). Then Friday should be $32M-$34M, Saturday will likely tick up to $34M-$36M and the Sunday leading into the holiday will be on par with Friday. With a Memorial Day Monday of $22M-$24M, I am calling for a five-day gross in the $162M-$172M range.
As four-day Memorial Day weekend grosses go, Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will likely be the all-time second or third best in history. If it reaches the high end of my five-day range, the new Indy has a chance to become the all-time No. 1 five-day opening in history, topping George Lucas’ Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith.
