[IMG:L]Looking for a safe bet on Emmy night? Pick John Adams to win every award it didn’t already win at last weekend’s Creative Arts Emmys. The other categories (AKA the ones we care about), however, are a lot tougher to predict–as always. But we gave them our best guesses, and you can do the same here. Be sure to check our winners list Sunday night to see how well or poorly we all fared.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: 30 Rock, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Entourage, The Office, Two and a Half Men
Should Win and Will Win: 30 Rock
Curb was in top form last season–one of its best–and The Office is always in top form, but neither is going to steal the award for Outstanding Comedy Series from, well, TV’s most outstanding comedy series, 30 Rock. The show is in a class of its own, and Emmy voters acknowledged that last year; how could they not do the same this year, when the second season was even better than the first? [PAGEBREAK] OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Nominees: Boston Legal, Damages, Dexter, House, Lost, Mad Men
Should Win and Will Win: Mad Men
That this season has lost a bit of its luster and is more must-TiVo than must-see is irrelevant. Last season, Mad Men’s first, stood out from every single other series, and it didn’t even require some grand, convoluted concept (i.e., Lost, Dexter)–in fact, Mad Men‘s plot is rather simple. Is Lost the more exciting show? By a mile, but Emmy voters are not Comic-Con fanboys–they’re people who were around during Mad Men‘s time period and can further vouch for its authenticity the nostalgia it evokes. Actually, voters probably account for half the show’s viewership! [PAGEBREAK] OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Tony Shalhoub, Monk; Lee Pace, Pushing Daisies; Steve Carell, The Office; Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men
Should Win; Will Win: Steve Carell; Alec Baldwin
Baldwin seemingly sealed the deal last season when he played, er, imagined Tracy Jordan’s (Tracy Morgan) father during a therapy session in the “Rosemary’s Baby” episode, but don’t entirely rule out the other boss-from-hell character, Carell’s Michael Scott. Voters are clearly Office fans, and Carell’s performance is rangier than meets the eye–and the deadpanning…it only looks effortless. Shalhoub, meanwhile, has won and/or been nominated every year since 2003 and thus is a slight contender by default.[PAGEBREAK] OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Tina Fey, 30 Rock; Christina Applegate, Samantha Who?; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine; America Ferrera, Ugly Betty; Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
Should Win; Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus; Tina Fey
It’s a stretch, in my opinion, to say that Applegate should and/or will win, but a lot of voters will disagree, and Applegate’s recent battle with breast cancer might also have an impact on voters (yes, they’re human beings!)–so don’t be totally surprised to see her accepting this award Sunday night. Still, the smart money’s on Fey to win her first leading-lady Emmy for a performance that has improved tremendously from season one. But she’ll face some competition from one of Emmy’s faves, Louis-Dreyfus, who might even be more deserving because there’s no Alec Baldwin on her show! [PAGEBREAK] OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Jeremy Piven, Entourage; Kevin Dillon, Entourage; Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother; Rainn Wilson, The Office; Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Should Win and Will Win: Neil Patrick Harris
The actor formerly known as Doogie has essentially become a superior version of Piven’s Ari Gold: more (hilariously) crass but also more redeeming; Emmy voters really like the latter quality. Of course, it won’t shock anyone to see Piven win his third straight Emmy in this category, and Wilson might have an outside shot, but it’s NPH’s turn to win. [PAGEBREAK] OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Nominees: Kristin Chenoweth, Pushing Daisies; Jean Smart, Samantha Who?; Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live; Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men; Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty
Should Win and Will Win: Amy Poehler
I hate to jinx it, but this, along with Best Drama Series, should be one of the easier non-John Adams categories to predict. Poehler has evolved into SNL‘s most versatile player in a long time and worn so many different hats over the past few years, but when she leaves the show for good after November’s election, Poehler will probably be best remembered for her Hillary Clinton impressions–and the Emmy they helped her win (which will be SNL’s first-ever acting Emmy). [PAGEBREAK] OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees: Gabriel Byrne, In Treatment; Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Michael C. Hall, Dexter; Jon Hamm, Mad Men; Hugh Laurie, House; James Spader, Boston Legal
Should Win; Will Win: Gabriel Byrne; Hugh Laurie
Byrne is most worthy, but when has that ever mattered? The veteran Irishman put in the most work (43 effin’ episodes!) and expended the most emotion on a show that was exhausting just to watch. But voters won’t be so bold with their pick, opting instead for either the safe choice in Spader (boooring) or the more sensible one in Laurie, who surprisingly still hasn’t won an Emmy. After all, isn’t the fact that most people still don’t know Laurie is British the ultimate testament to his convincing performance? Don’t rule out anyone in this category, though–not even Cranston. [PAGEBREAK] OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees: Glenn Close, Damages; Sally Field, Brothers and Sisters; Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order: Special Victims Unit; Holly Hunter, Saving Grace; Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Should Win; Will Win: Holly Hunter; Glenn Close
Hunter brings compelling grit to Saving Grace, but the fact that the show itself is ridiculously conceived and polarizing by nature hurts her chances. Which helps Close’s chances–not that she needed any help. The veteran actress, who beat some of these actresses for the Golden Globe earlier this year, should emerge victorious for her hard-hitting portrayal of litigator Patty Hewes. Of course, her co-nominees aren’t exactly slouches: Field and Hargitay have accounted for the last two Emmys, respectively, in this category, and Sedgwick is actually seen by some people as the favorite. [PAGEBREAK] OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees: Ted Danson, Damages; Michael Emerson, Lost; Zeljko Ivanek, Damages; William Shatner, Boston Legal; John Slattery, Mad Men
Should Win and Will Win: Ted Danson
I make the above prediction with my fingers crossed and the full knowledge that Shatner could very easily be chosen over Danson–which would be flat-out lazy on the voters’ part. Danson should win here not just for his rousing, charismatic performance on one of TV’s best new-ish shows, but also for sentimental reasons: After a decade and a half of post-Cheers role-searching (sorry, but Becker didn’t quite cut it for me), he seems to have found the perfect character, and it shows. And Shatner’s acting was the entire basis of his Comedy Central Roast, for Chrissakes! [PAGEBREAK] OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Nominees: Candice Bergen, Boston Legal; Chandra Wilson, Grey’s Anatomy; Dianne Wiest, In Treatment; Sandra Oh, Grey’s Anatomy; Rachel Griffiths, Brothers and Sisters
Should Win; Will Win: Dianne Wiest; Chandra Wilson
Yet another toughy. Wiest, a longtime master actress, deserves the statue–and could get it–for her great but small role on HBO’s great but small show. Wilson, on the other hand, gives a gaudier performance on one of TV’s most-watched series; all those factors come into play. Dark horses: Wilson’s cast mate, Oh, and Wiest’s age mate, Bergen.
