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Oscar Watch 2005: The Best Picture Race

Now that the Oscar nominations are roughly two months away, it’s time to start spinning the wheels. Compared to last year’s eclectic selection, with dark horse Million Dollar Baby coming out of nowhere to win, it looks like we may have a repeat performance with the 2005 Oscar Best Pic contenders. In other words, until the nominations are announced on Jan. 31, it’s all up in the air once again.

We’ve got sweeping epics (Memoirs of a Geisha, The New World); hard-hitting political dramas (Jarhead, Munich, Syriana); small, personal stories (Brokeback Mountain, Capote); a musical (The Producers); and, well, an 8000-pound gorilla to contend with. It’s gonna be fun, folks.

Read on for our look at the prospects both released and yet to come.

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Brokeback Mountain
Otherwise known as Ang Lee’s much-ballyhooed “gay cowboy flick.” Based on Annie Proulx’s short story, Brokeback Mountain focuses on two cowboys (Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger) who spend a rather memorable summer together in Wyoming’s wide open spaces, and then spend the rest of the time trying to forget it. Beautiful scenery, small intimate story with raw passion–what more can you ask for? The Venice Film Festival already gave it its top honors. Let’s see if the Academy follows suit.

Jake Gyllenhall in JarheadJarhead
A war movie with very little war involved, critics are mixed about this drama from Oscar-winning director Sam Mendes. Is Jarhead a commentary on the absurdities of a war we shouldn’t be fighting? A look at how demoralizing Marine training really is? Or is it just a boring excuse to watch pumped-up soldiers stew in their own testosterone? In today’s political climate, it’ll assuredly have Academy voters talking.

King Kong King Kong
Does director Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings himself, ever do anything half-assed? This GIANT of a beauty and the beast remake has everyone already buzzing from the spectacular-looking trailer. And with Oscar-weighty stars Naomi Watts and Adrien Brody–as well as funnyman Jack Black–attached, it certainly seems poised to reap massive accolades. But fantasy flicks have always been a hard sell come Oscar time–unless, of course, they’re epic in scale and revolve around one wicked gold ring. We shall see.

Ziyi Zhang and Ken Watanabe in Memoirs of a GeishaMemoirs of a Geisha
Now, this is just the stunningly shot, beautifully costumed, highly romantic period piece the Academy goes for. It’s adapted from a best-selling novel about a young Japanese girl who is taken from her home and taught the geisha ways. It’s directed by Rob Marshall, the Oscar-nominated director of Chicago, and it stars some of the industry’s top Asian actors, including Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon’s Ziyi Zhang. There really is no contest; it’s a shoo-in.

Munich
All Steven Spielberg had to do was utter, “I’m making a film about the aftermath of 1972 Olympics massacre,” before Oscar prognosticators added this film to the list. But in some sort of whirlwind craziness, Spielberg decided to make the film in, like, three months, right after toiling over his summer blockbuster War of the Worlds. I mean, seriously, Munich–starring Troy’s Eric Bana as an Israeli secret agent sent to find and destroy the Palestinian terrorists responsible for the attack–just wrapped in September. If he gets this one in under the wire, Spielberg should receive a nod for sheer tenacity alone.

Scarlett Johansson in Match Point Match Point
Back in the day, Woody Allen couldn’t lose, making one Oscar-worthy hit after another. But recently, fueled by a steady stream of only so-so fare–including Melinda and Melinda and Hollywood Endings–many believe Allen may have lost his touch. Has he really? Or was he just waiting for the right moment to strike again? Whatever the case may be, his latest film Match Point–a tense little Fatal Attraction-esque drama about marriage, betrayal and all that other fun stuff–has everyone buzzing. Ah, to be the talk of the town again.

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George Clooney in SyrianaSyriana
Just as 2001’s Oscar-nominated Traffic took a hard, mean look at drug trafficking, the political thriller Syriana–directed by Traffic writer Stephen Gaghan–examines the oil industry and all its backroom dealings and corruption. An all-star cast–including George Clooney, Matt Damon, Chris Cooper and Jeffrey Wright–infuses the interweaving stories, showing the human consequences of the fierce pursuit of wealth and power. Oh yeah, if any of the politically charged films should make it on the list, this one would be it.

Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon in Walk the LineWalk the Line
Biopics are definitely the rage these days. No one thought last year’s Ray would make it on the list, but sure enough, there it was when the nominations were announced. This year, we’ve got the dark look at the late, great Johnny Cash’s rise to fame. Fueled by stellar performances from Joaquin Phoenix as Cash and Reese Witherspoon as June Carter, who do their own singing, no less, Line could be a serious contender. That is, if Cash has a big enough following.

Other possibilities: David Cronenberg’s upsetting A History of Violence; festival darling CapoteThe Producers, a campy musical take on Mel Brooks‘ campy original; the politically charged Good Night, and Good Luck; Cinderella Man, the sole boxing contender; the intensely personal Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada; the intensely interwoven Crash; and The New World, a movie by Terrence Malick. Enough said.

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