Coming off their triumphant performances opposite NBC’s presentation of the XX Winter Olympic Games, I find myself wondering how Desperate Housewives and Grey’s Anatomy would fare opposite ABC’s telecast Sunday of the Academy Awards–if, that is, the Oscars were presented on another network. Given the strength of those two shows right now, and the modest box-office receipts for the five movies nominated for Best Picture, I have to think that if CBS or NBC were presenting the Oscars on Sunday, and if ABC stuck with first-run episodes of its regular Sunday programs, the Alphabet Net would come out on top.
Of course, ABC will win the night anyway, because the other broadcast networks have loaded their schedules with repeats opposite Oscar, as they always do. That’s because the Academy Awards telecast has always commanded one of the largest television audiences of the year and pulverized anything that other networks schedule against it. But as we have just witnessed with the Olympics, Big Events are no longer the guaranteed ratings bonanzas that they were in the past. That isn’t to say the era of the Big Event is over–ABC last month scored the largest audience (more than 90 million viewers) for any single program of any kind during the last ten years with Super Bowl XL. But it is clear that something significant is happening. In this extraordinary time for the medium, television series on broadcast and on cable have themselves become Big Events.
This is unarguably true of Fox’ formidable American Idol and ABC’s Dancing with the Stars, two series around which millions of Americans eagerly structure their personal lives, not to mention their viewing schedules. There are a number of other reality shows, especially CBS’ Survivor, that have similar power over people.
But scripted series are coming on strong as well. I’ll be glued to the tube Sunday night for every minute of the Oscarcast, but the shows next week that I’m the most excited about–the Big Events I can’t wait to see–are Fox’ 24 and FX’ The Shield. The nerve-frying final sequences of both shows this week–the terrorist attack on the motorcade on 24, Lt. Kavanaugh’s deeply disturbing encounter with his ex-wife (who faked her own rape to get his attention) and vengeful move against Lemansky–were more powerful than most of what I saw in movie theaters last year. (Fox will run a two-hour 24 event Monday at 8 p.m. ET. The Shield can be seen on FX Tuesday at 10 p.m. ET.)
The list of series that have become Big Events also includes ABC’s Lost, CBS’ CSI, Fox’ Prison Break and Sci Fi Channel’s Battlestar Galactica, another show that will deliver an unforgettable episode next week (with its eagerly anticipated and explosive season finale, Friday March 10 at 10 p.m. ET). For many television viewers, the long-awaited return on March 12 of HBO’s The Sopranos will be the Biggest Event of all. Similarly, the premiere of Disney Channel’s High School Musical in January and its many subsequent repeats have enjoyed Big Event status among the young.
Overall, this is an amazing time for television, with so much of its ongoing scripted and unscripted output so strong that the audience can’t help but feel satisfied. That may not leave much hunger for bigger and better things. Big Event specials will always be a part of television, and they will always have the potential to eclipse everything else on network schedules. But everyone involved with such programming will need to work harder than ever before to remain competitive if the quality of series television continues to soar.
Oscar Talk on AMC’s Sunday Morning Shootout
There seems to be as much interest in how the Oscarcast will perform for ABC Sunday as in what movie will win the award for Best Picture.
“These aren’t $300 million pictures,” Daily Variety editor-in-chief Peter Bart said of the five movies nominated for Best Picture on the most recent edition of Sunday Morning Shootout, the weekly movie talk show he co-hosts with legendary Hollywood producer Peter Guber on AMC. “These are pictures that nobody expected to get as far as they did. The combined U.S. gross of the five nominated pictures is less than the U.S. gross of Chicken Little [$134 million], which wasn’t even a hit!”
“Oscar must be a little nervous [about] the ratings,” Guber added. “Without big blockbusters like Titanic and Lord of the Rings or big stars like Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise, who’s gonna show up? It’s very perilous. Exciting, but perilous.”
Guber went on to suggest that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences “can’t hold tradition to such a high standard that it doesn’t innovate. They have to reach out to a young audience. They have to recognize they are in the media business. If they truly want to hold on to the old they won’t get the new.” In other words, Oscar needs an overhaul–a way to not appear so disconnected from the masses.
Academy president Sid Ganis told Guber and Bart that the selection of Jon Stewart as host of this year’s show represented a big step in that direction. He’s right. If the Oscarcast is to be regarded first and foremost as a television special, then there is no better choice than Stewart as star of the show. Stewart is a major television personality with an enormous fan base of intelligent, media-savvy teenagers and young adults who tune in night after night to watch him on Comedy Central’s The Daily Show.
This year’s telecast may also be helped by major nominations for three stars who gained mass recognition through successful television series: Felicity Huffman (Desperate Housewives) as Best Actress for Transamerica, Michelle Williams (Dawson’s Creek) as Best Supporting Actress for Brokeback Mountain and George Clooney (ER) as Best Supporting Actor for Syriana. (Clooney is also nominated in the categories of Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for Good Night, And Good Luck.)
Will any of the three win? I think not. My predictions and preferences in the top five categories follow. Best Picture: (prediction and preference) Brokeback Mountain. Best Actor: (prediction and preference) Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote. Best Actress: (prediction and preference) Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line. Best Supporting Actor: (prediction) Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man (preference) William Hurt, A History of Violence. Best Supporting Actress: (prediction) Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener (preference) Catherine Keener, Capote.
