You don’t have to be Miss Cleo to divine that accurately predicting Grammy winners is a near-futile task. Even a genuine psychic would have difficulty following the oft-baffling choice the famously flaky Grammy voters traditionally make, frequently defying logic, artistry, longevity and even the surest indicator in the music biz: sales. It was just last year, when all anyone was talking about was Eminem, that war-horses Steely Dan took the Album of the Year trophy.
Because the group has ignored icons like Elton John at their peak and rewarded such one-hit wonders as the Starland Vocal Band (look ’em up), your guess, frankly, is as good as anyone else’s. Nevertheless, here’s Hollywood.com’s bid at handicapping some of the major categories–but you’re on your own in the office water-cooler betting pool.
Grammys 2002 Predictions
Album of the Year
Acoustic Soul, India.Arie
Love And Theft, Bob Dylan
Stankonia, Outkast
All That You Can’t Leave Behind, U2
O Brother, Where Art Thou? Soundtrack, Various Artists
Who will win: All That You Can’t Leave Behind, U2
Who should win: All That You Can’t Leave Behind, U2
The skinny: A Grammy win provides the crowning moment in what has been one of the most incredible years in the Irish group’s history. Add up the elements: artistic credibility, commercial success and a long track record is potent, then consider the high quality of the triple platinum album and the group’s Herculean tour. Finally, factor in the zeitgeist of the moment: the songs resonated perfectly with the post-Sept 11 mood, and U2’s unabashed and vocal patriotism for a country they adopted (and which adopted them) will speak volumes. Still, give props to the immaculately performed and produced underdog O Brother, Where Art Thou? for making bluegrass not just popular but cool again.
Record of the Year
“Video,” India.Arie
“Fallin’,” Alicia Keys
“Ms. Jackson,” Outkast
“Drops Of Jupiter,” Train
“Walk On,” U2
Who will win: “Fallin’,” Alicia Keys
Who should win: “Ms. Jackson,” Outkast
The skinny: Despite the omnipresence of U2 in 2002, the album’s strongest song, “Beautiful Day,” racked up its Grammy a year earlier–“Walk On” suffers in comparison. In this category, Outkast’s too edgy a choice for Grammy voters, Train too featherweight. Look to Keys, whose simple, soulful ballad was embraced by a wide spectrum of listeners–and, likely, Grammy voters.
Song of the Year
“Drops Of Jupiter,” Train
“Fallin’,” Alicia Keys
“I’m Like A Bird,” Nelly Furtado
“Stuck In A Moment You Can’t Get Out Of,” U2
“Video,” India.Arie
Who will win: “Stuck In A Moment You Can’t Get Out Of,” U2
Who should win: “Fallin’,” Alicia Keys
The skinny: This songwriter’s award is a toughie, especially because the songwriters are all performers this year. The well-timed release of U2’s song as an elegy during America’s period of mourning practically guarantees it extra consideration. Still, despite the excellence of Keys and Arie’s works, was there anybody out there who didn’t find themselves singing aloud to “I’m Like a Bird” last year?
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Best New Artist
India.Arie
Nelly Furtado
David Gray
Alicia Keys
Linkin Park
Who will win: Alicia Keys
Who should win: Alicia Keys
The skinny: Milli Vanilli once won this category, proving the futility of handcapping it, but here goes. Without Alicia, this would be a close horserace indeed–but Keys is easily the most highly touted newcomer in the music biz in recent memory. Arie lacks her high profile, Furtado’s too fluffy, Gray’s moment has passed and while Linkin Park has come on strong recently, it’s probably too late to make an impact. Keys has it all: musical chops, a powerful Clive Davis pedigree, video-friendly looks and–following last year’s Eminem ruckus–a refreshing lack of scandal.
Female Pop Vocal Performance
“I’m Like a Bird,” Nelly Furtado
“There You’ll Be,” Faith Hill
“Someone To Call My Lover,” Janet Jackson
“By Your Side,” Sade
“Essence,” Lucinda Williams
Who will win: “I’m Like a Bird,” Nelly Furtado
Who should win: “Essence,” Lucinda Williams
The skinny: Let’s face it, Jackson really can’t sing–she’s a performer, not really a great vocalist. Hill is a little too slick. Williams is not quite high profile enough to carry the day. Thus it comes down to Furtado and her perky song or Sade’s strong effort. Since neo-soul is this year’s Grammy mantra, Furtado will probably get the hardware.
Male Pop Vocal Performance
“Fill Me In,” Craig David
“You Rock My World,” Michael Jackson
“I Want Love,” Elton John
“Still,” Brian McKnight
“Don’t Let Me Be Lonely Tonight,” James Taylor
Who will win: “Fill Me In,” Craig David
Who should win: “Fill Me In,” Craig David
The skinny: Forget about John and Taylor, their nominations were largely for posterity’s sake. Jacko is the dark horse in this race (Grammy voters love him for some reason), but McKnight and David clearly turned in the best vocal performances of the year and the voters recognize that. Again, in this climate, the happy, uplifting mood of “Fill Me In” should carry David to the podium.
Pop Collaboration With Vocals
“Lady Marmalade,” Christina Aguilera, Lil’ Kim, Mya and Pink
“New York State of Mind,” Tony Bennett and Billy Joel
“Nobody Wants to be Lonely,” Ricky Martin with Christina Aguilera
“My Kind of Girl,” Brian McKnight and Justin Timberlake
“It Wasn’t Me,” Shaggy featuring Ricardo “RikRok” Ducent
Who will win: “New York State of Mind,” Tony Bennett and Billy Joel
Who should win: “My Kind of Girl,” Brian McKnight and Justin Timberlake
The skinny: It’s just hard to bet against sentimental favorites Bennett and Joel singing a sentimental song particularly meaningful this year (and the same one Joel sang at the Sept. 11 benefit telethon, we might add). Grammy voters, though, may choose to reward Shaggy for his blockbuster year here, considering they snubbed him pretty much everywhere else. Still, Timberlake proved he had real singing chops, keeping up with the wildly talented McKnight on their duet.
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Pop Vocal Album
Whoa, Nelly!, Nelly Furtado
All For You, Janet Jackson
Songs From The West Coast, Elton John
Celebrity, ‘N Sync
Lovers Rock, Sade
Who will win: Whoa, Nelly!, Nelly Furtado
Who should win: Lovers Rock, Sade
The skinny: As if Elton John or Janet Jackson had a prayer of winning this one, even given that pundits think Grammy voters owe them. Whatever. Nor do I think (as I reiterate) that ‘N Sync can prevail during this zeitgeist of substance over style. Which means it comes down to Furtado and Sade. Once again, since Furtado is part of the neo-soul wave (even if just tangentially) she might walk off with this honor, beating Sade’s better creation.
Rock Album
Gold, Ryan Adams
Just Push Play, Aerosmith
Stories From the City, Stories From the Sea, PJ Harvey
Hybrid Theory, Linkin Park
All That You Can’t Leave Behind, U2
Who will win: All That You Can’t Leave Behind, U2
Who should win: Gold, Ryan Adams
The skinny: You can’t stop them, you can only hope to contain them. U2 led this year’s nominees with eight bids, and though their album isn’t quite up to Adams’ tremendous album, it would be hard to fault any voter who chooses All That You Can’t Leave Behind. The only nominee that could leave U2 behind is Linkin Park, which was, after all, last year’s best-selling act.
R&B Album
Aaliyah, Aaliyah
No More Drama, Mary J. Blige
Survivor, Destiny’s Child
Acoustic Soul, India.Arie
Songs in A Minor, Alicia Keys
Who will win: Aaliyah, Aaliyah
Who should win: (TIE!) Acoustic Soul, India.Arie and Songs in A Minor, Alicia Keys
The skinny: Women rule R&B! Much like U2 in the previous category, it would be impossible to fault anyone who chooses Aaliyah purely on technical merit. Add in the sympathy factor (plus the fact she’s never won before) and it’s hard to see Aaliyah not winning this category posthumously. But it’s also hard to justify any of these albums over the other; this category is just so deep with quality efforts. I was taken by the new sounds of India.Arie and Alicia Keys more than the others, though.
Rap Album
Scorpion, Eve
Pain Is Love, Ja Rule
The Blueprint, Jay-Z
Back For The First Time, Ludacris
Stankonia, Outkast
Who will win: Stankonia, Outkast
Who should win: Stankonia, Outkast
The skinny: A win by melodic, Southern funk-rappers Outkast would elevate and honor quality hip-hop. And considering that Outkast was nominated (but certainly won’t win, as Grammy voters are still too prudish) in the Album, Record and Song of the Year categories should make Grammy voters feel sorry for them and throw Outkast this bone. Wondering aloud: How many Grammy voters do you think really listened to these albums from beginning to end? I know I have, but that’s because I can’t stand country music.
Staff writer Scott Huver contributed to this report
