Last year was an anomaly. It’s usually easy to spot an Oscar frontrunner, but with 2004’s wide range of quality films, it was almost next to impossible. I mean, Best Picture winner Million Dollar Baby was still flying way under anyone’s radar by this point.
But we’re back to standard practices in 2005–and it looks like the gay cowboys have it. Ang Lee’s beautifully haunting Brokeback Mountain about two ranch hands who find love in unexpected places, is standing clearly in front.
Almost all the critic associations–including Los Angeles, New York, Boston, Critics’ Choice and a slew of others–have chosen it as their top film for the year. Even the Hollywood Foreign Press Association chose Brokeback as their Golden Globe favorite, along with the Johnny Cash biopic Walk the Line. Only the National Board of Review, which picked Good Night, and Good Luck, the National Society of Film Critics, which picked Capote and us crazy Online critics, who picked A History of Violence, have strayed off the Mountain path.
As Oscar hopefuls wait on pins and needles for the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences to announce the 78th Academy Award nominations Jan. 31 at 5:30 a.m. PST, we’re taking a guess as to who else will snag nods, plus who we wish would get picked.
Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Walk the Line
Despite Brokeback’s shoo-in nod, the rest of the picks weren’t as easy to choose as one may think. Certainly Good Night will snag a spot as a sentimental favorite as will the captivating Capote. The last two choices, however, could be up in the air. Walk the Line
will probably get a nod, since biopics are all the rage these days, as should the affecting Crash, despite being snubbed by the Globes.
Honorable Mentions: But then David Cronenberg’s intense A History of Violence and Steven Spielberg’s politically charged Munich (now that the screeners have gone out) could also easily make the cut. Less likely but still in the running are Fernando Meirelles’ powerful The Constant Gardener; Syriana, the other political film; Woody Allen’s dark Match Point; and Pride and Prejudice, representing the only lavish period piece of the bunch.
What We Wished Would Get Nominated: King Kong. Yes, we know its about an 8,000 lb. gorilla but he still breaks our hearts.
Best Actor 
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
Although each one of these guys truly deserves the award–something you can’t say every year–the race is really going to be between Hoffman, as the tricky Truman Capote, and Ledger, as Brokeback’s more introverted cowboy Ennis Del Mar. Phoenix, as the Man in Black himself, Johnny Cash, and Strathairn as the enigmatic Edward R. Murrow should also get nods. The fifth spot was a difficult choice, but Crowe will most likely see his fourth nomination as the real-life Depression era boxer James Braddock.
Honorable Mentions: Terrence Howard should be on this list for his mesmerizing performance as a pimp-turned rapper in Hustle & Flow, but we’re betting he might get noticed elsewhere (see Supporting Actors below). Also in contention are Viggo Mortensen, as a family man with a dark past in A History of Violence; Cillian Murphy’s turn as an almost-too-pretty transvestite in Breakfast on Pluto; and Jeff Daniels as a conflicted father in the divorce drama The Squid and the Whale.
Who We Wish Would Get Nominated: Steve Carell as the undeniable 40 Year-Old Virgin, who basically made the rest of us look like the crazy ones.
Best Actress Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha
The Best Actress race also looks to be between two main frontrunners: Golden Globe winners Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon. Huffman’s performance as a tough-but-vulnerable transsexual is a tour de force–and we know how much those Academy voters love when actresses get ugly for their art. But they also love it when actresses try something new, like singing, which gives Witherspoon, as June Carter Cash, a shot. Dame Judi’s delightfully quirky theater owner Mrs. Henderson should give this veteran actress her umpteenth Oscar nod, while Theron, glamming down as a sexually harassed iron mine worker, will get her second. That leaves the coveted fifth spot–and we’re going with Zhang’s multi-layered turn as a legendary geisha. She learned English for the role, for heaven’s sakes!
Honorable Mentions: Then again Keira Knightley’s spirited 19th century heroine in Pride & Prejudice could get some consideration, as could Gwyneth Paltrow as a depressive math genius in Proof, Claire Danes as a contemplative glove saleswoman in Shopgirl and Joan Allen as a bitter alcoholic mother in Upside of Anger.
Who We Wish Would Get Nominated: Naomi Watts as the hapless dame in King Kong, who raised the bar in working with the increasingly present green screen.
Best Supporting Actor George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Howard, Crash
Could this finally be the year Paul Giamatti gets an Oscar nomination? After being royally robbed last year for his stellar work in Sideways, Giamatti looks to get his first nod as scrappy boxing manager Joe Gould. But he’s got some stiff competition–from a list full of first-timers. Golden boy Clooney should score his first nod (along with a few in other categories) as a passionate CIA operative, as should Dillon as a overworked, underpaid racist L.A. cop. Gyllenhaal’s portrayal of the lovelorn rodeo rider Jack Twist is also strong enough to make the list. And then there’s Howard, who, along with his brilliant turn in Hustle & Flow, gives a searing performance as a downtrodden TV director in Crash. He’ll probably take the fifth spot.
Honorable Mentions: The Golden Globes liked Bob Hoskins as Mrs. Henderson Presents’ no-nonsense theater manager, as well as Will Ferrell’s hilarious take as a Nazi playwright in The Producers. There’s also Ed Harris’ baddie in A History of Violence and Don Cheadle’s jaded cop in Crash. And we’ll also add in Barry Pepper as a repentant Texas/Mexico border patrolman in Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada.
Who We Wish Would Get Nominated: Mickey Rourke for his sick, twisted (but heartbreaking) pathos in Sin City.
Best Supporting Actress Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
This is a nice eclectic mix. As the so-called veterans of the bunch, Keener–as the quietly supportive novelist Harper Lee–and McDormand–as a fiery iron mine worker who goes through a devastating turn of events–are almost certain to get nods. Golden Globe winner Weisz should see her first nod for her turn as a doomed human rights activist. But it’s Williams, as a jilted homemaker, and Adams, as a terribly naïve pregnant Southerner, who have been getting the most buzz.
Honorable Mentions: Also in serious contention: Maria Bello’s stunned wife in A History of Violence; Scarlett Johansson’s sultry adulteress in Match Point; Gong Li’s conniving geisha in Memoirs of a Geisha; and lovely veterans Shirley MacLaine and Diane Keaton for their heart-tugging matriarchal performances in In Her Shoes and The Family Stone, respectively.
Who We Wish Would Get Nominated: Isla Fisher’s deliciously wacky nymphomaniac in Wedding Crashers. Come on, it’d be fun, wouldn’t it?
Best Director George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Steven Spielberg, Munich
Lee seems to be the only shoo-in for a nomination–who will also more than likely take home the award, if we can be so bold. Still, there is some other formidable competition. Clooney, who must just be tickled pink with all the accolades he’s been getting, should see his name on the list for his subtle work in Good Night. So will Haggis for juggling Crash’s many storylines with ease. Also Spielberg shouldn’t be missed for his stirring vision in Munich. But for the fifth spot, we are sticking with the DGA’s choice of Bennett Miller, for vividly bringing Truman Capote to life.
Honorable Mentions: A History of Violence’s David Cronenberg sorely deserves some recognition for his fine work, as does The Constant Gardener’s Fernando Meirelles. Many feel Woody Allen is back in the groove with Match Point. And Walk the Line’s James Mangold could also sneak in for his straightforward direction.
Who We Wish Would Get Nominated: Peter Jackson for re-imagining King Kong. I think you can see a pattern forming here.
