As Oscar hopefuls wait on pins and needles for the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences to announce the 75th Academy Award nominations on Tuesday morning, this lowly Oscar enthusiast is getting the opportunity to guess who will snag a nod (or two).
It certainly has been challenging coming up with the lists; the race is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent memory, and there are easily more than five quality choices per category.
But that’s the fun of it–trying to figure out which way the Academy voters will go–and since I like my fun, that’s what I did for the top six categories.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
These are a solid five. Cage‘s twins, Day-Lewis‘ 1860s butcher, and Nicholson‘s repressed retiree are all likely shoo-ins for their strong performances, while veteran Caine, whose work in The Quiet American has been labeled as the best he’s ever done, will probably get the nod even though the film had a very limited Oscar run in December and is still awaiting a wide release. As the fifth nominee, newcomer Brody should also get the recognition for his tour de force turn in The Pianist.
Honorable Mentions: Hugh Grant‘s heartwarming performance as the callous cad in About a Boy has been thrown out there, but the film’s early spring release may hamper his chances. Leonardo DiCaprio could get recognized for his excellent work in Catch Me If You Can as might young Kieran Culkin in Igby Goes Down. But if these young stars don’t get the honors this time around, I’m pretty sure their turn will come soon enough.
Best Actress
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Meryl Streep, The Hours
Renee Zellweger, Chicago
With two women-centered Best Picture contenders (The Hours and Chicago), it’s clear this has been an exceptionally good year for Hollywood’s actresses. This list for Best Actress is pretty firm, with the prosthetically endowed Kidman and the vampy Zellweger sure-fire favorites. Streep should get a nod for her devastating work in The Hours but let’s hope it won’t cancel out her other, even better supporting turn in Adaptation. The same goes for Moore, who will most likely snag a Best Actress nod for her sugary-sweet 1950s housewife in Far From Heaven and again under the supporting category for a very different 1950s housewife in The Hours (see below). The underrated Lane deserves the spot, and even though Unfaithful came out ages ago, the actress’ recent nods at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards clearly means no one has forgotten her searing, sexually charged performance as a conflicted wife.
Honorable Mentions: Salma Hayek‘s controversial portrait of painter Frida Kahlo in Frida could garner a nomination, as might long-shot Greek sensation Nia Vardalos for My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Crazier things have happened.
Best Supporting Actor
Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Richard Gere, Chicago
Ed Harris, The Hours
Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can
Harris as the tortured poet in The Hours, Quaid as the ’50s husband-turned-swinging-gay-man in Far From Heaven and Walken as the forlorn Abagnale Sr. in Catch Me are all clear contenders. Cooper as the intrepid orchid thief in Adaptation stands out, especially after his Golden Globe win, while Gere is the wild card of the bunch. Although Miramax is campaigning hard for a Best Actor nod, Gere‘s song-and-dance man in Chicago is much more a supporting role, so more than likely he’ll show up here.
Honorable Mentions: If Gere miraculously makes the Best Actor list, then Paul Newman‘s understated portrayal of a mob boss in Road to Perdition would the best replacement. John C. Reilly should get something for three great performances in Chicago, The Hours and The Good Girl but maybe not this year. Andy Serkis‘ Gollum in The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers also made an indelible impression, and if a CGI performance could get a nomination in this category, Serkis would deserve it.
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Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Julianne Moore, The Hours
Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander
Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
Kathy gets naked. Catherine struts her stuff. Michelle kills a guy with poisonous flowers. Meryl gets high on flowers. Julianne, well, she emotes. The supporting actress lineup is a good one this year with loads of possible winners. Streep‘s recent Golden Globe win, however, puts her at the forefront.
Honorable Mentions: Patricia Clarkson‘s turn as a questionable best friend in Far From Heaven has been getting plenty of notice from the critics’ groups, so she might make the list, as might Susan Sarandon for her demented, pill-popping mom in Igby Goes Down or Queen Latifah for her big Mama in Chicago. Miranda Richardson‘s turn as Virginia Woolf’s sister in The Hours might also be recognized.
Best Director
Stephen Daldry, The Hours
Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Rob Marshall, Chicago
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
Best Director is a tough category this year, with a wide array of talent. Veteran Scorsese tops the list for his sheer tenacity in getting Gangs made (and the fact he has never won the damn award), but Daldry‘s brilliant work on The Hours has elevated this director into the elite. First-timers Haynes and Marshall probably don’t stand a chance of winning the Oscar, but they deserve their spots. And Jackson should be patient–next year he should finally get the award for his epic Lord of the Rings trilogy.
Honorable Mentions: Spike Jonze‘s quirky sensibilities in Adaptation, Alexander Payne‘s skewered view on corn-fed America in About Schmidt and Roman Polanski‘s personal mission statement in The Pianist all stand good chances of making the grade as well.
Best Picture
About Schmidt
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Best Picture question is still up for debate. It’s undoubtedly the hardest category to predict, and it’s equally hard to choose a mere five candidates from such a wide playing field. Nonetheless, these are the frontrunners. You can read the reasons in last week’s column.
Honorable Mentions: A nomination could also go to the screenwriter’s nightmare Adaptation, the Douglas Sirk homage Far From Heaven, the Holocaust drama The Pianist or the bubblegum comedy My Big Fat Greek Wedding. You just never know.
The Academy Award nominations will be announced Feb. 11 at 5:30 a.m. PT/8:30 a.m. ET. CBS’ The Early Show and ABC’s Good Morning America will be among the shows broadcasting the nominations live from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Los Angeles.
